Chuck Holton
Politics • Culture • News
Chuck Holton is an American war correspondent, published author, and motivational speaker.
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Update from Ukraine

Hey folks, Chuck Holton here. Uh, I'm just wanting to give you a quick update of what's going on in Ukraine. I'm back in Kiev. Now we've spent about a week down on the front lines, uh, in the south east and near dinette skin in the dumbass region. And now we're back here. Part of the reason we came back is because there's so much information coming out and down there, we just don't have much in the way of, you know, connection.

not a lot of bandwidth to get stuff out. It's a really large area to cover and it's hard to get around down there. And so we're so deep in the, in the weeds out there that we were missing stuff and unable to get some of the content we needed. So we came back here for the time being, and we're kind of keeping an eye on things.

Everybody wants to know if Russia is going to invade Ukraine. And I would say that this short answer to that is only Vladimir Putin ex. The long answer is that Ukrainians certainly don't think so. Because here in Kiev, they are going about their daily lives. As they have been the entire time. They, they, they believe that perhaps Putin will manufacture some sort of, uh, excuse for an incursion in around the dome boss or Denescu regions.

They really don't believe he's going to roll tanks into cave. If that were to happen, it could be bad here because there's three and a half million people in this city. And if they all needed to leave at once, there's just not the capacity in the public transport transport system or anything, it would be chaos.

So we're actually making ex-filtration plans now to figure out what we would have to do if something like that were to happen. Um, I think that right now, Putin is just playing a really high stakes game here with the west. His big sticking point is he says that the, you know, we've got to promise that Ukraine cannot join NATO, but if anything, this buildup on their border has made Ukrainians want to join NATO all the more.

I know there are a lot of people in states that say like, what's the, why do we care? What happens here? And I get that. I understand that. I mean, this is, it doesn't have anything to do with America's vital national interests necessarily, except for the fact that wherever the United States isn't Russia will be.

We've seen that around the globe right now in Syria, in Armenia, in Kazakhstan, in, you know, just a whole region. Russia is expanding its influence its ascendant in world geopolitics. While the United States is pulling back, uh, licking our wounds from Afghanistan and, and with, uh, a weak president, our adversaries are.

Being emboldened around the world. And that's one of the reasons why this happened now and not under Trump, uh, Vladimir Putin wouldn't have done this under Trump. I really, I really don't think he would have because, uh, they, we had a stronger president. The bottom line is it's going to drag on for some time.

I believe it's really hard to say what Putin is going to do, everybody. That's the big question. Everybody wants to know. We really don't know. There are tremendous number of ceasefire violations happening down in the dinette screens. Uh, mortars and artillery and automatic grenade, launchers and machine gun fire, and anti-tank missiles are all being fired across the red line into Ukraine.

Ukrainians are at some, in some instances firing back in order to suppress those fires, but they're not firing on civilian targets. Uh, I was down there. I can tell you that's not happening. Uh, the. Governments, the S of the separatists down there that are backed by Russia are working overtime to make Hollywood level videos and putting out all this information that is supposed to convince people that Ukraine is about to invade Donetsk.

That's not going to happen. That Ukraine is not preparing to invade anybody. I was just. They're dug in. They're not there. They're preparing to defend, not to attack Donetsk. Uh, governments say that they're capturing Ukrainian terrorists through are blowing things up. Uh, you know, they blew up a car in front of a government building in Danesi the other day and they blamed it on the Ukrainians.

Nobody was hurt. Uh, it, it was just after. Ridiculous false flag operation. Another false flag was there where they said that they CA they caught some Polish special forces. Like what does Poland have to do with this Polish special forces ended ask, plotting the blow up some Russian or some tanks or something with chlorine gas, uh, and this huge community of.

Hobbyists that a collect open source Intel got ahold of that video pulled apart, found that the explosions in the video came from a YouTube video from several years ago, from a training event in Finland that they, um, you know, the, the. That they said happened on this date was actually created several days before they said it happened.

And it was created from a mishmash of other videos that were kind of put together. You can tell all that stuff from the metadata when you download the video and they're the people making the videos are too stupid to wipe the metadata. So there you go. I mean, it's. Just sort of comical. It would be funny except for the fact that people in Donetsk are actually believing this stuff to some extent, to some extent, because they are living in a north Korean style government that doesn't allow any access to the outside world.

They've announced evacuations, internets of women and children. We're hearing from some women and children in that region that don't want to go and are trying to hide. We've also heard of that. They're mobilizing the. Military age males in that area. Uh, and conscripting them into the military to fight this Ukrainian invasion.

And they say it's coming. And we know for a fact that most of those people don't want to get conscripted and a lot of them are hiding out to try to avoid it. So it's obvious that Russia is working overtime to create a pretext for. Something down there so far, there's been no incursions that we know of.

No tanks rolling across the border. It's just firing artillery back and forth, and then making accusations in social media. Now the media battlespace is very. And, uh, right now I would say that the Russians are outdoing, the Ukrainians and the media battlespace, the Ukrainians are trying to build up their capacity.

They're kind of too little too late, maybe, but, uh, there, they put up a press office in and they're putting out several press briefings every day. I'm going to post, uh, some portions of their most recent press briefing on here on locals and a pretty quick. That's what we've got so far. Um, I don't know how much longer I'm going to be here, but we'll keep, you know, keeping an eye on things and I'll let you know what's going on.

Uh, thanks for paying attention and for subscribing and for supporting the podcast. And, uh, and me, I appreciate that. Please share it with your friends. Take care.

00:08:04
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My erstwhile field producer and cameraman Dennis Azato has accompanied me on ten years of adventures across the globe. Today he joins me in Ukraine and we spend some time remembering our many trips together.

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Calling Young Men to Lead: Join The Forge This Summer

We’re launching our very first Forge Field Leadership Camp this summer!

The Forge is a one-week, field-based camp for young men (ages 13–17), built on a biblical foundation. It’s designed to train real-world skills—navigation, survival, building, leadership—while shaping character, discipline, and faith.

This is more than a summer camp. It’s a call to rise.

Led by veterans and experienced mentors, these young men will be challenged to grow stronger in every way—physically, mentally, and spiritually.

Dates: August 2–9
Ages: 13–17
Apply now: https://www.frontierforge.org/

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A New Milestone!
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Car Explosion Outside U.S. Embassy in Yerevan Sparks Fire, Investigation Underway

YEREVAN, Armenia — February 19, 2026
A vehicle exploded outside the U.S. Embassy in Yerevan, Armenia, this evening, prompting a significant fire and emergency response from local authorities, according to multiple eyewitness reports and local media.

Around 6:00 p.m. local time, a car reportedly exploded on Isakov Avenue, directly in front of the U.S. Embassy compound in Armenia’s capital. The blast was powerful enough to ignite a large fire that was visible from surrounding blocks and drew firefighters and police to the scene.
Video posted on social media shows flames and smoke rising from the area of the explosion, and emergency services were at the location within minutes.

At this time, no official statement has been released by the U.S. Embassy or Armenian government regarding the cause of the explosion, possible casualties, or whether the incident was deliberate. Authorities are currently investigating.
Embassies typically have robust security perimeters, and there is no confirmed...

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Live Call TOMORROW
Our live call is this Saturday, February 21st at 12:00 PM Eastern.

Local’s members,

Our live call is this Saturday, February 21st at 12:00 PM Eastern.

Chuck just returned from Colombia and Syria and will be taking your questions—covering everything from ministry work on the ground in Colombia to the evolving geopolitical situation overseas. This is your chance to go deeper and hear directly from him.

He’ll also be sharing more about the upcoming Frontier Forge Institute summer camp, including its mission to train young men (ages 13–17) in Christian leadership, discipline, and responsibility. 

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Mercy on the Ground, War on the Horizon

The conflict between the United States and Iran is doing that strange dance right now. On one hand, you’ve got “negotiations” in Geneva. On the other hand… you’ve got aircraft carriers moving.

Axios reported this morning that we may be closer to striking Iran than most people realize. Not months. Not “someday.” Possibly days. And if you watch the hardware, it tells a clearer story than the press releases.

In just the last 48 hours, reports indicate the U.S. has surged:

  • 48 F-16s

  • 12 F-22s

  • 18 F-35s

  • 6 E-3G Sentry AWACS aircraft

  • Roughly 40 aerial refueling tankers

Meanwhile, the USS Gerald R. Ford carrier strike group has passed the Rock of Gibraltar and entered the Mediterranean.

And here’s what most people don’t understand:

That carrier does not have to sail into the Strait of Hormuz to be useful.

From the eastern Mediterranean—especially with tanker support—U.S. aircraft can strike targets inside Iran. Which means this could kick off before the Ford ever gets to the Gulf.

These “Talks” Aren’t Really Talks

The negotiations happening in Geneva aren’t face-to-face. There’s no American official sitting across a table from the Ayatollah. It’s shuttle diplomacy.

Omani intermediaries walk between rooms—one room with American envoys, another with Iranian representatives—carrying messages back and forth.

The U.S. says:
“You must give up highly enriched uranium and abandon your nuclear ambitions.”

Iran says:
“We’re willing to talk.”

And then quietly:
“Just not about that.”

That’s not negotiation.

And while the delay continues, the Ayatollah is publicly threatening to sink American carriers, calling them “big targets.”

Can Iran Sink a Carrier?

Let’s be serious for a moment. Yes, Iran has hypersonic missiles. Yes, they have thousands of short-range missiles designed to threaten neighbors like Saudi Arabia. Yes, they have speedboats with guns and some small submarines.

But here’s the problem for them:

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Iran’s Threat Videos, America’s Buildup, and the Question Nobody Wants to Answer

Right now, the nuclear talks in Geneva are stalling with Iran. Meanwhile, the United States is building combat power in the region at a level we haven’t seen since the Iraq invasion—two aircraft carriers, dozens of warships, hundreds of combat aircraft, and tens of thousands of troops either in theater or moving that direction.

 

The U.S. buildup is not subtle—and Iran knows it

From what I’m tracking, the U.S. is moving into the region with:

  • Two carrier strike groups (one already in theater and another inbound)

  • 300–400 combat jets in the region when you count land-based aircraft

  • Patriot and THAAD batteries shifting into place

  • Aegis destroyers tuned for ballistic missile defense

  • A steady stream of support aircraft—tankers, ISR platforms, and the stuff you don’t talk about on a public livestream

And here’s the point: the United States isn’t putting all that out there to “negotiate harder.” That’s the kind of posture you take when you want your opponent to understand the consequences before you act.

Iran’s information war just leveled up (and yes, the video was impressive)

Iran has been pumping out threat videos for weeks—straight of Hormuz posturing, military drills, the whole production.

But they dropped one recently that honestly looks like a Super Bowl ad for ballistic missiles.

And I’ll say this plainly: it was well-made. Whoever is building their media operation understands modern influence warfare. The goal isn’t just to scare Israel—it’s to scare Americans, spook markets, pressure allies, and make decision-makers hesitate.

The missile they’re showcasing is the Khoramshahr-4 (they’re pitching it as unstoppable, “uninterceptable,” and essentially a war-ending weapon).

So let’s talk about what it can do—and what it can’t.

Khoramshahr-4: a serious threat, but not a war-winner

From the way this missile is being described, it’s a liquid-fueled, medium-range system with roughly 2,000 km range—meaning Israel is in reach, U.S. bases in the region are in reach, and potentially some assets farther out are threatened depending on basing and launch options.

The real concern isn’t just speed. The concern is maneuverability on re-entry—a re-entry vehicle that can adjust course makes interception harder.

But here’s the part that matters strategically:

  • A weapon can be terrifying and still not be decisive.

  • A missile can get through sometimes and still not win the war.

Even if Iran had a significant number of these—and even if a percentage penetrated defenses—that’s not enough to defeat the combined combat power the U.S. and Israel can bring to bear.

Iran can cause damage. Iran can kill people. Iran can make the cost real.

But Iran cannot win a conventional war against the U.S. and Israel.

That’s why they’re leaning so heavily into the psychological side: if you can’t win the fight, you try to prevent the fight.

The Strait of Hormuz threat has a problem: China

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