I'm writing this from Tijuana, where I'll be reporting over the next couple of days before moving on to my next assignment. Before we get into what's happening here on the border, though, there have been some significant developments in the Middle East that deserve a closer look. As usual, the headlines are telling only part of the story.
This week, President Trump formally notified Congress that the United States has resumed offensive military operations against Iran under the War Powers Resolution, effectively bringing an end to the ceasefire that had been in place since April. At the same time, U.S. Central Command announced that the blockade of Iranian ports has been reinstated, marking a return to a more aggressive strategy aimed at isolating Iran while protecting international shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Those are important developments in their own right, but they also reveal something else: despite the political rhetoric coming from Washington, this war is far from over.

One of the things that has always frustrated me—regardless of which party occupies the White House—is the tendency for politicians to declare victory long before the facts justify it. As I said during my livestream, "I don't like hype, and I don't like bravado. If you have to tell the world what a tough guy you are, you're not a very tough guy." I'd much rather deal with reality than campaign slogans, and the reality is that Iran remains capable of carrying out the very actions this military campaign was intended to stop.
That doesn't mean the United States hasn't had significant success. It has. Iranian military infrastructure has been heavily damaged. Key facilities have been struck. Their naval forces have suffered substantial losses, and their ability to project conventional military power has been degraded. But that's not the same thing as saying the war has been won.
Military victory isn't measured by speeches or press conferences. It's measured by whether the enemy can still accomplish what you went to war to prevent.
"The enemy's got to not be able to continue to do what you went to war to stop them from doing," I said during the broadcast. "That's kind of the whole point of this."
Unfortunately, recent events suggest Iran still possesses that capability.
Within the past several days, Iranian anti-ship missiles struck two commercial vessels near the Strait of Hormuz and the Gulf of Oman. One of those attacks killed an Indian crewman and injured several others. What's particularly noteworthy is that neither vessel had any meaningful connection to the United States or Israel. According to Tehran, the ships were attacked because they failed to comply with Iran's demands regarding passage through the Strait.

That represents an important shift. Until recently, Iran largely claimed it was targeting vessels connected to Israel or the United States. Now it appears to be asserting authority over international shipping itself, attempting to dictate who may transit one of the world's most strategically important waterways. That is something the United States—and frankly, the international community—cannot allow.
