There are places in the world where the air feels differentânot because of altitude or humidity, but because history is leaning forward, listening for the next sound, and everybody can feel it in their bones.
Tonight, Iâm coming to you from Erbil, up here in northern Iraqi Kurdistan, not far from the Iranian border, and Iâm sitting alongside one of my favorite people on planet Earth, my friend Ibrahimâone of the greatest Kurds youâll ever meet, the kind of guy who has seen enough betrayal to make most men bitter, and yet somehow still has the courage to look you in the eye and talk about hope like itâs a real thing.
We were fighting the Starlink connection when we went live, and if the signal froze, if the audio hiccuped, if the feed stuttered and jumped, it wasnât because we were being dramaticâitâs because the internet across this region is in bad shape right now, and I suspect itâs connected to whatâs happening next door in Iran, where the regime has been trying to silence the country by shutting down the digital oxygen that keeps people connected to the outside world, because tyrants always do the same thing when they start losing control: they cut the wires, they darken the streets, and they hope the world will look away.
But the world isnât looking away, not tonight.
And neither are we.
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The Rumors Out of Iran Are Horrifyingâand the Regime Is Acting Like a Dying Animal
The word coming out of Iran right now is brutal, and Iâm going to be careful here because some of the numbers are hard to corroborate in real time, especially when the regime is jamming communications and the fog of fear is thick, but what we are hearingâwhat people are whispering, what sources are repeating, what the Iranian people themselves are trying to scream through the cracksâis that the regime has been massacring civilians in staggering numbers, to the point where some claims are approaching tens of thousands and even more, and whether those figures are precise or inflated in the chaos, the direction of the story is unmistakable: the killing is accelerating, not slowing down.
And it feels, from the outside looking in, like the Islamic Republic has reached that stage where itâs no longer trying to governâitâs trying to survive, and itâs doing it the only way it knows how, by lashing out, by killing its way out of the problem, like a cornered animal that canât imagine surrender because surrender would mean accountability, and accountability would mean the end.
Thatâs the atmosphere right now.
Thatâs the temperature of this moment.
And into that moment, President Trump has made statementsâbig statementsâabout help being on the way, statements he has reiterated, and meanwhile the people of Iran are begging him to intervene, not because they suddenly trust America or love the West, but because they have reached that level of desperation where theyâll grab onto any lifeline, even one that might cut their hands.
But hereâs the thing: for all the talk, it has looked like the United States was not prepared to strike when those words were first spoken.
That gapâbetween âhelp is on the wayâ and the reality of ânothing has happened yetââis where hope turns into rage, and where people start dying in the dark while the world debates.
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This Is Not Political Posturing: Look at the Fuel
Now, I want you to understand something, because thereâs a lot of noise online and itâs easy to get cynical and say, âOh, this is just chest-thumping,â or âThis is just another round of saber-rattling,â or âThis is a bluff.â

But when youâre looking at military posture, one of the biggest telltale signs isnât the speeches, and it isnât even the shipsâitâs fuel.
Right now, the United States has amassed more than 5.37 million pounds of fuel offload capacity in the region, and that should make your eyebrows go up, because you donât stage that kind of refueling capability unless youâre preparing for sustained operations, the kind of operations where aircraft arenât just launching once, dropping a payload, and going home, but where they are cycling, returning, refueling, and going right back in again until the mission is complete.








