As of today, the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz are the focal point for both tactical maritime friction and strategic decision-making between the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran.
Between February 3rd and today, weâve had two major incidents involving tankers in that region:
Feb 3: Iran attempted to stop and board an American-flagged tanker using fast boats and a drone.
Today: Iran seized two tankers near Farsi Island, north of the Strait of Hormuz.
Thatâs not business as usual. Thatâs escalation behaviorâespecially while theyâre pretending to negotiate.
The ship they tried to stop on February 3rd wasnât just âsome American-flagged commercial vessel.â It was the MV Stena Imperoâpart of a U.S. government program called the Tanker Security Program (TSP).
TSP ships are essentially mobile fuel lifelines for the U.S. Navyâspecially certified for refueling warships underway. Thatâs not a small capability. That is how you keep destroyers and carrier groups operating without coming home.
So when Iran sends fast boats with machine guns and launches a drone toward a tanker like that, it isnât just piracy or harassment. Itâs potentially an attempt to cripple U.S. naval sustainment right before a strike window.
And if Iran had successfully taken that tanker? That couldâve kicked off a shooting war on the spot.
The two ships seized todayâand why Iran did it now
Now, the two tankers seized today near Farsi Island were different. These were illegally flagged âghost fleetâ style ships, and based on whatâs being overlooked in mainstream reporting, they were involved in subsidy arbitrageâbuying heavily subsidized Iranian diesel and selling it in neighboring markets for massive profit.
Iran subsidizes fuel so heavily that it can be purchased inside the country for pennies. Across the water, diesel sells at market rates. That markup is insaneâmore than most illegal drug operations.
So yesâIran has every right to stop fuel theft.
But hereâs the real question: Why do it now?
