Western nations don’t sound the alarm without reason. And right now? They’re telling their citizens in Iran to get out. Fast. France is one of several countries urging evacuation, and when you connect the dots, it paints a clear picture: Something big is about to go down.

For the first time, the U.S. may be preparing to strike inside Iran itself—not just against its proxies. Why? Because Iran’s fingerprints are all over the Houthi attacks in the Red Sea and Israel. And a bombshell report from the National Council of Resistance of Iran (an exiled opposition group) confirms what many already suspected: The Iranian regime is personallyoverseeing the Houthis' political and military operations.

 American drones have been actively conducting surveillance missions over strategic sites in Iran. That’s not routine. That’s target prepping.

You don’t run thousands of high-resolution images through analysis software for fun. You do it to create a target package. Refueling tankers are going up. Regional partners are quietly being briefed. The U.S. isn’t just rattling sabers—it’s pulling them out.

To avoid open conflict, Iran is trying to de-escalate—releasing a French hostage, for instance. But that won’t be enough. President Trump made it clear: Another Houthi attack on Israel equals an Iranian attack. And the Houthis fired again. The fuse has been lit.

So if you’re in Iran—and your government or embassy tells you to leave—it might be time to listen. Because if missiles do start falling, it won’t be symbolic. It’ll be decisive. And it could change everything in the region.

Watch the full video here

Reports are that Putin kept Trump waiting for over an hour after their scheduled call time.  How does that make the US look here?

1. Ceasefire Scope – Who Benefits?

   • Trump claims there’s an immediate ceasefire on all “Energy and Infrastructure.”
   • Putin’s readout only refers to a 30-day freeze on attacks against energy infrastructure.  There's a difference in these two claims.  
   • This disproportionately benefits Russia because:
     • Ukraine has been rebuilding its grid to be more distributed and resilient, relying on smaller power plants.
     • Russia, on the other hand, is still dependent on large, centralized oil and gas infrastructure, which has been under near-daily attack.
     • Freezing energy strikes helps Russia stabilize its economy and war funding while doing relatively little for Ukraine.

2. Who’s Negotiating?

   • Trump’s readout suggests both Putin and Zelensky are on board.
   • Putin, however, only refers to talks between Russia and the U.S., excluding Ukraine from the process.
   • This would allow Putin to dictate terms without Ukrainian input, sidelining the country that is actually fighting the war.

3. Peace Talks – Immediate or Indefinite?

   • Trump states negotiations will begin immediately in the Middle East.
   • Putin only expresses an intention to continue efforts—a much weaker, noncommittal statement.
   • There’s a big difference between a firm plan and vague diplomatic talk.

4. The Unspoken Condition – U.S. Military Aid Cuts

   • Trump’s version of the call ignores Putin’s key demand:
     • That the U.S. must cut off military aid and intelligence sharing with Ukraine as part of the deal.
   • This would severely weaken Ukraine’s ability to defend itself and benefit Russia without requiring any real concessions from Moscow.

5. Why Putin Wants These Terms Now

   • Ukraine has already agreed to an immediate, unconditional ceasefire—but Putin rejected it. Instead, he’s trying to reshape the deal to his advantage.
   • His requests align with Russia’s current weaknesses:
     • Ukraine has successfully crippled 15 of Russia’s 33 major refineries, hurting Putin’s ability to fund the war.
     • Ukraine’s navy has forced Russia to pull back its Black Sea fleet, making a maritime ceasefire strategically beneficial to Moscow.
     • Recent U.S. intelligence blackouts helped Russia launch surprise attacks—Putin wants to make those intelligence gaps permanent.

The Bigger Picture

Putin is not agreeing to the unconditional ceasefire that Ukraine and the U.S. previously backed. Instead, he is:

• Protecting his war economy by stopping attacks on his energy sector.
• Framing the deal to Western audiences as reasonable while still advancing his goals.
• Giving Trump something to claim as a victory without making meaningful concessions.
• Turning Ukraine’s self-defense into the “problem” instead of Russia’s ongoing invasion.

Trump presents this as a breakthrough, but in reality, it’s a strategic repositioning by Putin to shift the war in Russia’s favor while limiting Ukraine’s ability to fight back.

Israel is back in Gaza with over 40 strikes against Hamas targets, the U.S. is hitting the Houthis in Yemen, and Israel is striking in Lebanon and Syria. That’s a lot of conflict in one day.

But here’s what I want to talk about: ceasefires. Specifically, why they rarely lead to the end of a war.

Ceasefires Don’t End Conflicts—Winning Does

A ceasefire sounds nice in theory. Two sides stop shooting, people get a break from the violence, and maybe, just maybe, they find a way to peace. But in reality, that’s not how wars end. Wars end when one side wins.

The idea that two reasonable parties will sit down and negotiate peace assumes that both sides are rational. But real, wars don’t start because people are reasonable. If they were, they wouldn’t have gone to war in the first place.

Take Russia and Ukraine. Russia didn’t just wake up one day and say, “Let’s have a friendly discussion.” No, they built up 250,000 troops on Ukraine’s border and then invaded. They claimed all sorts of reasons—some of which had a strategic basis—but none of which were moral, rational, or justified.

Trump, Putin, and a Pointless Phone Call

Recently, former President Trump had a call with Vladimir Putin about a ceasefire in Ukraine. It didn’t go well. Putin left Trump on hold (a power move) and later made demands that no one in the West could accept.

The Kremlin’s version of the call was very different from the U.S. version. Putin didn’t agree to a ceasefire. Instead, he said he might consider stopping attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure—but only if the West stopped all weapons shipments to Ukraine. In other words, Russia would stop targeting power plants if Ukraine essentially surrendered. That’s not a negotiation. That’s blackmail.

Russia’s Long History of Breaking Ceasefires

Let’s talk history. Russia has agreed to multiple ceasefires with Ukraine over the years. How many have lasted? Zero.

Here’s a quick rundown:

• 2014 Minsk Agreement – Broken almost immediately.

• 2015 Minsk II Agreement – Also broken.

• 2016 Ceasefires (Harvest, Easter, School-Year, Christmas) – Every single one was violated.

• 2019 Steinmeyer Formula Ceasefire – Lasted longer but still collapsed.

• 2020 Nationwide Ceasefire – This one worked for a while, but guess what? Russia used the time to build up forces before launching its full-scale invasion in 2022.

See a pattern? Russia doesn’t want a ceasefire—they want a chance to regroup and attack again later.

The Reality: Either Ukraine Wins or Russia Wins

This war doesn’t end with a handshake. There are only two possible outcomes:

1. Ukraine loses. That means 30 million people live under Russian oppression, and Russia moves on to its next target—maybe Poland or even Belarus.

2. Russia loses. And they learn a hard lesson that aggression doesn’t pay.

Right now, Russia is struggling. Ukraine is hitting Russian energy infrastructure hard, and it’s making a big impact. That’s why Putin suddenly wants to negotiate—but only on his terms.

What Should Happen Instead?

Instead of pushing for a doomed ceasefire, the U.S. should take the same stance on Ukraine that it takes on Israel: full support until victory is achieved.

If Trump really wants to make an impact, he should be telling Putin:

“We will never allow NATO to attack Russia, but we also won’t allow Russia to take territory that isn’t theirs. Until Russian troops leave Ukraine, we will use every economic tool available to collapse your war machine.”

That’s the only language Putin understands. Anything less just delays the inevitable.

Final Thoughts

Ceasefires sound good on paper, but history shows they rarely work. When dealing with aggressive, expansionist regimes like Russia, stopping the fight only gives them time to regroup and attack again later. The only way to end this war is for Ukraine to win—and the U.S. should be doing everything it can to make sure that happens.

Let me know what you think in the comments!