From my vantage point in northern Kyrgyzstan, reflecting on global conflicts, one question looms large: is there a middle path between full-scale war and appeasement? Former President Donald Trump’s stated goal to “stop the killing” in Ukraine and Israel is laudable, but the method matters. Stopping the violence at the cost of surrender whether by forcing Ukraine to cede territory to Russia or by demanding Israel stand down to Hamas would be neither just nor lasting.
History offers a third way: deterrence through presence. This is the concept behind tripwire troops small, forward-deployed U.S. military units positioned in strategic locations not to fight, but to make any act of aggression against them an act of war against the United States. The result? Adversaries think twice.
Why Forward Presence Works
The U.S. currently has forces deployed in more than 170 countries, totaling around 170,000 service members. While many of these deployments are embassy security or routine training, a fraction are “tripwire” positions. These troops’ primary mission is deterrence, not combat.
The logic is simple: an attack that kills Americans compels a U.S. military response, something most adversaries cannot afford to provoke. In the Baltics, Poland, and other NATO states, these forces serve as a visible barrier to Russian expansion. The concept works in other regions as well:
South Korea: 28,500 U.S. troops have deterred North Korean aggression for over 70 years.
Kosovo: U.S. and allied forces have prevented a resumption of war between Serbia and Kosovo for decades.
Middle East: U.S. presence in Syria, Iraq, and Jordan has restrained—not eliminated hostile actions by regional actors.
In many cases, host nations share the costs. Germany, Japan, and South Korea contribute billions annually to offset expenses, making forward deployment more cost-effective than often assumed.
