As of today, the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz are the focal point for both tactical maritime friction and strategic decision-making between the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran.
Between February 3rd and today, we’ve had two major incidents involving tankers in that region:
Feb 3: Iran attempted to stop and board an American-flagged tanker using fast boats and a drone.
Today: Iran seized two tankers near Farsi Island, north of the Strait of Hormuz.
That’s not business as usual. That’s escalation behavior—especially while they’re pretending to negotiate.
The ship they tried to stop on February 3rd wasn’t just “some American-flagged commercial vessel.” It was the MV Stena Impero—part of a U.S. government program called the Tanker Security Program (TSP).
TSP ships are essentially mobile fuel lifelines for the U.S. Navy—specially certified for refueling warships underway. That’s not a small capability. That is how you keep destroyers and carrier groups operating without coming home.
So when Iran sends fast boats with machine guns and launches a drone toward a tanker like that, it isn’t just piracy or harassment. It’s potentially an attempt to cripple U.S. naval sustainment right before a strike window.
And if Iran had successfully taken that tanker? That could’ve kicked off a shooting war on the spot.
The two ships seized today—and why Iran did it now
Now, the two tankers seized today near Farsi Island were different. These were illegally flagged “ghost fleet” style ships, and based on what’s being overlooked in mainstream reporting, they were involved in subsidy arbitrage—buying heavily subsidized Iranian diesel and selling it in neighboring markets for massive profit.
Iran subsidizes fuel so heavily that it can be purchased inside the country for pennies. Across the water, diesel sells at market rates. That markup is insane—more than most illegal drug operations.
So yes—Iran has every right to stop fuel theft.
But here’s the real question: Why do it now?
