Chuck Holton
Politics • Culture • News
The Iran War Has Reached an Inflection Point
The battlefield is shifting, the pressure on Tehran is intensifying, and the real fight now may be over oil, internal collapse, and what comes after the regime.
March 15, 2026

Over the last two weeks, we have seen the war expand far beyond a limited exchange of strikes and counterstrikes. What we are witnessing now is not simply a campaign to degrade Iranian military capability. It is becoming, in very real terms, a campaign designed to push the regime toward collapse and replacement. That does not mean the outcome is guaranteed, and it certainly does not mean the road ahead will be simple, but the center of gravity in this war is clearly changing.

For days now, I have been listening to what I call the black-pill conservatives, the people who always seem to predict disaster, who have spent this conflict insisting that Israel is on the verge of destruction, that the United States is walking blindly into catastrophe, and that any effort to break the back of the Iranian regime will end in humiliation. I have very little patience for that kind of fatalism, especially when it is delivered from a safe distance by men who have no skin in the game and no real feel for what is happening on the ground. That is why I wanted to hear directly from somebody who is actually there, so I reached out to Chris Mitchell, the Jerusalem bureau chief for CBN, and asked him to give me a quick, straightforward assessment of what life looks like in Israel right now.

What Chris described was not an image of a country collapsing under unbearable pressure. He described a nation that is still taking fire, still hearing sirens, still seeing interceptions overhead, and still dealing with shrapnel falling dangerously close to homes and historic neighborhoods, but he also described a society that remains remarkably resilient. The missile volume is down from where it was at the outset of the war, even though the attacks have not stopped. Interceptions continue over Jerusalem, debris still lands in populated areas, and cluster munitions remain a very real danger, but the spirit of the Israeli people has not broken. In fact, the mood he described was exactly what you would expect from a country that understands the stakes. Israelis do not want this war ended prematurely. They want it prosecuted to a real conclusion, one in which the regime in Tehran is either removed or reduced to the point that it no longer poses a threat to Israel or to its neighbors.

That matters, because there are a great many people online trying to sell the fantasy that Israel is secretly being devastated, that casualty numbers are being hidden, and that the public is on the verge of demanding surrender. Chris dismissed that outright, and from everything else I’m seeing, he is right to do so. Israel has taken some damage, and every death is a tragedy, but this idea that the country is being brought to its knees is nonsense. He pointed out something else that is worth paying attention to as well: the Israeli stock market is doing extremely well. That may sound like a side note, but it is not. Markets are not perfect moral indicators, but they do tell you something about confidence, and right now confidence inside Israel is not collapsing. It is growing.

The reason for that confidence is straightforward. Israel and the United States are not merely reacting anymore. They are shaping the battlefield, and President Trump in particular has spent the last twenty-four hours sending a very clear message to Tehran that the war can still get far worse for them. Up until now, the overwhelming majority of the strikes have been focused on military targets, command nodes, launch sites, production capacity, and the infrastructure of repression. But Trump has made it clear that if Iran continues trying to choke off the Strait of Hormuz and weaponize the global energy market, the next phase of pressure may extend to critical infrastructure that the regime desperately needs in order to function.

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The Threat Against Trump Is Worse Than We Knew
An Iranian plot, a dramatic Air Force One deception, and America’s dangerous race to catch up on drone defense

The threat environment around President Donald Trump has reached a level I have never seen before—and new reporting about what happened during his trip to Turkey shows just how serious it has become.

When Trump left Ankara after meeting with NATO leaders on July 8, the public was initially told that he had used an older Air Force One for nostalgic reasons. Then we heard that the newer aircraft was unavailable. After that, reports suggested that security concerns had influenced the decision.

Now we are learning that the situation was much more dramatic.

According to new reporting, American and Israeli intelligence had picked up a credible Iranian threat against the president’s aircraft. The danger was considered serious enough that the Secret Service and the military carried out the kind of deception you would expect to see in a Hollywood thriller.

Trump boarded the older Air Force One with members of the press pool and his staff. Everyone aboard was reportedly instructed to close the window shades. A catering truck then pulled alongside the aircraft as though it were delivering food.

Instead, the president got into the truck.

The vehicle carried him across the tarmac to a smaller, less conspicuous government aircraft—a C-32A—which then flew him out of Ankara. Many of the people traveling with him apparently did not know what was happening until later.

Think about that for a moment. The president of the United States had to slip off Air Force One in a catering vehicle and leave a NATO summit aboard a smaller decoy aircraft because the Iranian threat was considered credible enough that officials feared his plane could be attacked.

That tells us at least two things. First, Iran’s threats against President Trump cannot be dismissed as empty propaganda. Second, the United States cannot afford to assume that every NATO ally can provide a secure operating environment simply because its flag appears on the right list in Washington.

Israel reportedly helped identify the threat. If that intelligence contributed to getting the president home alive, Americans ought to remember it.

Why Are Missile Batteries Guarding a Golf Course?

The extraordinary precautions did not end in Turkey.

Recent images from Trump’s golf club in Bedminster, New Jersey, show Avenger short-range air-defense systems positioned nearby and surrounded by concertina wire. These Humvee-mounted systems carry Stinger missiles and a .50-caliber machine gun.

That is not normal golf-course scenery.

The Avenger is designed to protect troops and critical assets from low-flying aircraft, helicopters, and other aerial threats. If officials are deploying that kind of equipment while the president plays golf, they are not worried only about a hobbyist accidentally flying a DJI drone into restricted airspace.

They are preparing for the possibility of a deliberate attack.

The obvious threat is a small commercial or homemade drone modified to carry explosives. These aircraft can fly low, move quickly, and approach from directions that make them difficult to detect. They are also cheap. That creates an ugly economic problem: firing a Stinger missile costing hundreds of thousands of dollars at a drone worth a few hundred or a few thousand dollars is wildly inefficient.

But if that drone is headed toward the president, nobody is going to worry about the price of the missile.

The harder problem is engagement range. A small drone can be difficult to detect and hit before it gets close enough for an explosion—or even falling debris—to injure the person being protected. A manually aimed machine gun is not an ideal answer to a dinner-plate-sized target moving at highway speed. Missiles also have practical limitations at very short distances.

That is why presidential protection now requires a layered counter-drone system: radar and other sensors to detect the aircraft, electronic systems to disrupt or seize control of it, directed-energy weapons to damage its electronics, and kinetic weapons as the final line of defense.

After the assassination attempt in Butler, Pennsylvania—where the attacker had reportedly flown a drone over the venue before climbing onto a roof—the Secret Service accelerated its counter-drone efforts. That was necessary, but it also revealed how far behind the United States had allowed itself to fall.

The Drone War Is Already Here

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When Charity Becomes Self-Destructive: Spain’s Border Crisis Is a Warning to the West When Charity Becomes Self-Destructive: Spain’s Border Crisis Is a Warning to the West

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This crisis is not an isolated development but part of a long-established migration pattern that I have previously reported on in the region. The geography of Ceuta and Melilla, Spain’s two enclaves on the North African coast, creates a uniquely accessible entry point into Europe, where migrants can reach Spanish jurisdiction not only by sea but also by crossing land barriers that separate the enclaves from Morocco.

During earlier reporting in the region, I encountered individuals who had repeatedly attempted entry despite deportation, including one Algerian migrant who described multiple crossings and returns, driven by the economic disparity between North Africa and Europe. His explanation was straightforward: the opportunity available on the European side of the border represented a level of income and stability that was otherwise unattainable in his country of origin.

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Spain’s approach, which has increasingly allowed irregular entrants to remain and eventually regularize their status, creates a system in which initial illegal entry can lead to long-term residence and access to broader European mobility. As a result, Ceuta functions not merely as a local issue but as a gateway into a wider continental migration system.

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There is also a geopolitical dimension to these events that cannot be ignored, as migration flows have at times been influenced by state behavior and used as leverage in diplomatic disputes. In previous incidents involving Spain and Morocco, border enforcement patterns appeared to shift in ways that coincided with political tensions, resulting in sudden surges of crossings that placed immediate pressure on Spanish authorities.

This dynamic reflects a broader reality in which migration can be used as an instrument of statecraft, not through direct military confrontation but through the manipulation of border permeability. Unlike conventional conflict, this form of pressure exploits legal and humanitarian frameworks that make it difficult for receiving countries to respond with force, even when the scale of entry overwhelms administrative capacity.

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