For months, the central question surrounding Iran has been whether the regime can withstand the economic and military pressure being applied by the United States and its allies.
This week, a different question emerged.
What if Iran is already getting what it wants?
President Trump continues to insist that Iran cannot be allowed to obtain a nuclear weapon. During a rare televised cabinet meeting, he pointed to Iran's economic collapse, soaring inflation, and internal instability as evidence that Tehran has little choice but to negotiate. According to Trump, Iran's leadership is feeling the pressure.
The problem is that pressure alone does not guarantee results.
Recent reports out of Iran claimed that negotiators were discussing a framework that would effectively grant Tehran greater influence over the Strait of Hormuz while postponing any serious discussion of its nuclear program. The White House has since dismissed those reports as false, but the episode exposed a growing concern among regional observers.
Negotiations appear to be moving slowly, while events on the ground continue moving in Iran's favor.
The Strait of Hormuz Changes Everything
At the center of the debate is the Strait of Hormuz.
Roughly one-fifth of the world's oil supply normally passes through this narrow waterway. Whoever controls access to it holds significant leverage over global energy markets.
Before the conflict escalated, Iran did not possess the level of influence over shipping traffic that it does today. Now, according to several military analysts, Tehran has demonstrated an ability to disrupt one of the world's most important commercial chokepoints.
That reality is shaping every negotiation.
Retired General Jack Keane warned that Iran views control of the Strait as a strategic prize and has little incentive to surrender that leverage voluntarily. Gulf Arab states are watching closely. Their economies depend on stable energy exports, and many are increasingly uncertain about how the current negotiations will end.
The longer uncertainty continues, the more regional governments may begin making their own accommodations with Tehran.
Military Force Has Limits
Former CENTCOM Commander General Joseph Votel offered another important perspective.
Military action can weaken Iran. It can destroy infrastructure, degrade capabilities, and impose costs. But military force alone is unlikely to produce a lasting solution.
