With Moscow building forces near Ukraine, Russian drones appearing deeper inside Europe and the Kremlin issuing increasingly explicit warnings to Britain and other NATO countries, the war is entering a dangerous new phase.
By Chuck Holton
Russia’s war against Ukraine is approaching another critical winter, but the most important developments are no longer confined to the front lines. Moscow is assembling additional forces, threatening European countries that provide weapons to Kyiv and demonstrating an increasing willingness to test how far it can go beyond Ukraine without provoking a direct response from NATO.
I’ll be heading back to Eastern Europe next week to report on this situation firsthand, including several days inside Ukraine as well as stops in Poland and Lithuania. I intend to visit some of the places where Russia’s pressure on Europe is becoming increasingly visible and to examine a question that is becoming harder for NATO governments to avoid: How much Russian aggression can take place outside Ukraine before Europe decides that the conflict has crossed a new threshold?
The timing of the trip is significant because Ukraine appears to be approaching one of the most consequential periods of the war. Russia continues to absorb enormous battlefield losses while attempting to replace men, equipment and infrastructure faster than Ukraine can destroy them. At the same time, Moscow is reportedly preparing another large mobilization for a winter campaign, while Russian forces are building up in areas that could threaten Ukraine from additional directions. In my assessment, this winter could go a long way toward determining which side ultimately emerges with the advantage.
A Mysterious American Visit to Moscow
One of the most intriguing developments came with CIA Director John Ratcliffe’s unannounced visit to Moscow. The trip was unusual not simply because America’s intelligence chief traveled to Russia, but because there appeared to be little effort to conceal it. Ratcliffe reportedly arrived aboard a conspicuous American military aircraft, spent roughly two hours on the ground and met with Russian intelligence officials before leaving. The United States has offered little public explanation for what was discussed.
Russian officials subsequently attempted to characterize the meeting as routine contact between intelligence services. I find that explanation difficult to accept. Intelligence chiefs certainly communicate with their counterparts, including adversaries, but an urgent trip to Moscow under these circumstances suggests something more serious than an ordinary exchange of information. My suspicion is that Washington wanted to deliver a message that was considered too sensitive or consequential to communicate through normal diplomatic channels.
Exactly what that message concerned remains unknown, and it is important not to present speculation as fact. It may have involved Russia’s plans in Ukraine, the possibility of escalation involving NATO, Iran and the Strait of Hormuz, or something else entirely. Given the increasingly threatening rhetoric coming from Moscow, however, it is reasonable to believe that the administration wanted the Kremlin to understand there are limits it should not cross.
The larger problem for Washington is that Vladimir Putin has spent years demonstrating that he does not view relations with the United States primarily through the lens of friendship or personal diplomacy. A former American official featured during the broadcast argued that Putin sees the United States as an adversary seeking to weaken Russia and therefore interprets unilateral concessions not as gestures of goodwill but as opportunities to demand more. Whatever one thinks of President Trump’s approach to Moscow, that is an important reality to keep in mind when dealing with the Kremlin.
Russia Is Testing Europe
While the diplomacy takes place behind closed doors, the military pressure is increasingly visible. Russian drones have been appearing beyond Ukraine’s borders, part of what I see as a broader pattern of asymmetric pressure against European countries. The transcript describes five Russian drones entering Moldova and another Shahed-type drone reaching Hungary, incidents that come as Moscow repeatedly warns European governments against providing military support to Ukraine.
