Chuck Holton
Politics • Culture • News
The Dark Fleet Is Fueling the World’s Dictators — And the U.S. Might Finally Be Ready to Do Something About It
December 13, 2025
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I’m coming to you today from Panama, where I’ve been digging into a story that’s far bigger than most people realize. It involves a shadowy network of ships—1,423 of them at last count—that roam the world’s oceans moving sanctioned oil for regimes like Russia, Iran, and Venezuela. Some call it the dark fleet, others the ghost fleet, but whatever the name, it’s become a lifeline for the world’s worst dictators.

Out of those 1,423 vessels, roughly 920 are sanctioned themselves. These aren’t just ships doing business in a gray area—they are part of a global ecosystem of deception, fraud, and corruption that props up authoritarian governments and undermines the international rules that keep maritime trade safe. They spoof GPS signals, turn off their transponders, swap oil with “cleaner” tankers in the dead of night, operate under shell-company ownership, and sail uninsured—floating environmental disasters just waiting to happen.

And for years, not much was done about it. But that may be changing.

Just days ago, the United States seized a massive VLCC tanker—the Skipper—carrying 1.8 million barrels of Venezuelan crude bound for Cuba. It’s a move that seems small on its own, but it hints at something larger: Washington may finally be realizing that targeting the dark fleet isn’t just desirable—it’s strategically powerful.

That raises a fascinating question: What would happen if the U.S. and its allies cracked down hard on these ghost ships—everywhere, all at once? Could it reshape global power? Could it even topple Maduro?

Let’s dig into that.

 

A Sanctions Loophole Big Enough to Sail a Tanker Through

These ghost ships function by exploiting cracks in the global maritime system. They manipulate AIS beacons, swap oil mid-ocean, hide ownership behind layers of shell companies, fly false flags, and operate without legitimate insurance. The UN’s maritime regulator has warned that these rusted, poorly maintained hulks are ticking time bombs—and we’ve already seen “Ukrainian sanctions” in action when Ukrainian sea drones blew up several shadow-fleet tankers in the Black Sea.

Imagine what happens if one of these decrepit tankers explodes in a global choke point like the Strait of Hormuz. You’d see a shock to oil markets overnight.

And yet, that’s the system that keeps Venezuela, Iran, and Russia afloat.

 

The U.S. Begins to Apply Pressure

The seizure of the Skipper wasn’t random. It’s part of a broader pressure campaign—one that former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has openly supported. He said plainly that going after these vessels is a direct way to choke off the revenue Maduro depends on to stay in power.

Pompeo also noted something key: Maduro’s regime probably has “weeks, not months” of financial runway without this illicit revenue stream. And Cuba—already experiencing rolling blackouts—relies on Venezuela for about a quarter of its total energy supply. This single tanker seizure hurts Havana even more than Caracas.

But perhaps the most important variable is geography. Satellite data reveals dozens of sanctioned tankers parked just off Venezuela’s northern coast. In theory, if the U.S. waits for them to exit Venezuela’s 200-mile EEZ, it could legally seize many of them—especially the stateless ones.

Imagine the U.S. grabbing one tanker per day.

The ripple effects would be enormous.

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Our live call is this Saturday, February 21st at 12:00 PM Eastern.

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Our live call is this Saturday, February 21st at 12:00 PM Eastern.

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Mercy on the Ground, War on the Horizon

The conflict between the United States and Iran is doing that strange dance right now. On one hand, you’ve got “negotiations” in Geneva. On the other hand… you’ve got aircraft carriers moving.

Axios reported this morning that we may be closer to striking Iran than most people realize. Not months. Not “someday.” Possibly days. And if you watch the hardware, it tells a clearer story than the press releases.

In just the last 48 hours, reports indicate the U.S. has surged:

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  • 12 F-22s

  • 18 F-35s

  • 6 E-3G Sentry AWACS aircraft

  • Roughly 40 aerial refueling tankers

Meanwhile, the USS Gerald R. Ford carrier strike group has passed the Rock of Gibraltar and entered the Mediterranean.

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That carrier does not have to sail into the Strait of Hormuz to be useful.

From the eastern Mediterranean—especially with tanker support—U.S. aircraft can strike targets inside Iran. Which means this could kick off before the Ford ever gets to the Gulf.

These “Talks” Aren’t Really Talks

The negotiations happening in Geneva aren’t face-to-face. There’s no American official sitting across a table from the Ayatollah. It’s shuttle diplomacy.

Omani intermediaries walk between rooms—one room with American envoys, another with Iranian representatives—carrying messages back and forth.

The U.S. says:
“You must give up highly enriched uranium and abandon your nuclear ambitions.”

Iran says:
“We’re willing to talk.”

And then quietly:
“Just not about that.”

That’s not negotiation.

And while the delay continues, the Ayatollah is publicly threatening to sink American carriers, calling them “big targets.”

Can Iran Sink a Carrier?

Let’s be serious for a moment. Yes, Iran has hypersonic missiles. Yes, they have thousands of short-range missiles designed to threaten neighbors like Saudi Arabia. Yes, they have speedboats with guns and some small submarines.

But here’s the problem for them:

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Iran’s Threat Videos, America’s Buildup, and the Question Nobody Wants to Answer

Right now, the nuclear talks in Geneva are stalling with Iran. Meanwhile, the United States is building combat power in the region at a level we haven’t seen since the Iraq invasion—two aircraft carriers, dozens of warships, hundreds of combat aircraft, and tens of thousands of troops either in theater or moving that direction.

 

The U.S. buildup is not subtle—and Iran knows it

From what I’m tracking, the U.S. is moving into the region with:

  • Two carrier strike groups (one already in theater and another inbound)

  • 300–400 combat jets in the region when you count land-based aircraft

  • Patriot and THAAD batteries shifting into place

  • Aegis destroyers tuned for ballistic missile defense

  • A steady stream of support aircraft—tankers, ISR platforms, and the stuff you don’t talk about on a public livestream

And here’s the point: the United States isn’t putting all that out there to “negotiate harder.” That’s the kind of posture you take when you want your opponent to understand the consequences before you act.

Iran’s information war just leveled up (and yes, the video was impressive)

Iran has been pumping out threat videos for weeks—straight of Hormuz posturing, military drills, the whole production.

But they dropped one recently that honestly looks like a Super Bowl ad for ballistic missiles.

And I’ll say this plainly: it was well-made. Whoever is building their media operation understands modern influence warfare. The goal isn’t just to scare Israel—it’s to scare Americans, spook markets, pressure allies, and make decision-makers hesitate.

The missile they’re showcasing is the Khoramshahr-4 (they’re pitching it as unstoppable, “uninterceptable,” and essentially a war-ending weapon).

So let’s talk about what it can do—and what it can’t.

Khoramshahr-4: a serious threat, but not a war-winner

From the way this missile is being described, it’s a liquid-fueled, medium-range system with roughly 2,000 km range—meaning Israel is in reach, U.S. bases in the region are in reach, and potentially some assets farther out are threatened depending on basing and launch options.

The real concern isn’t just speed. The concern is maneuverability on re-entry—a re-entry vehicle that can adjust course makes interception harder.

But here’s the part that matters strategically:

  • A weapon can be terrifying and still not be decisive.

  • A missile can get through sometimes and still not win the war.

Even if Iran had a significant number of these—and even if a percentage penetrated defenses—that’s not enough to defeat the combined combat power the U.S. and Israel can bring to bear.

Iran can cause damage. Iran can kill people. Iran can make the cost real.

But Iran cannot win a conventional war against the U.S. and Israel.

That’s why they’re leaning so heavily into the psychological side: if you can’t win the fight, you try to prevent the fight.

The Strait of Hormuz threat has a problem: China

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