Chuck Holton
Politics • Culture • News
The Iran War Has Come Home
Terror attacks on American soil, new Iranian proxy activity in Europe, and a widening battlefield are changing the shape of this conflict
March 13, 2026

This conflict has already moved beyond the region where it began. It is no longer just a story about missile launches over Israel, strikes on Iranian military infrastructure, or tension in the Strait of Hormuz. It has now reached into Europe, and it has reached into the United States. In other words, the war has come home.

Over the last twenty-four hours alone, we saw two terror attacks inside the United States, both tied to jihadi lone-wolf actors. Investigators are still sorting out whether those incidents were coordinated in any meaningful operational sense, and my own suspicion is that they probably were not, but they occurred close enough together in time to create understandable concern. The larger point is not whether those two attacks were centrally directed from some bunker halfway around the world. The larger point is that the ideological fire has already spread, and we should expect more sparks before this is over.

One of those attacks took place at Old Dominion University, where a man entered an ROTC class, confirmed that it was indeed the ROTC class, and then opened fire on the instructor, Lieutenant Colonel Brandon Shaw. I do not name mass shooters, because I refuse to give evil free publicity, but I will absolutely name the victims, because they are the ones whose memory deserves honor. Lieutenant Colonel Shaw was a combat veteran who had served with the 82nd Airborne, and he was murdered in that classroom.

What happened next says a great deal about the kind of courage America desperately needs to recover. Rather than scatter, hide, and pray the violence would pass them by, the students in that room converged on the shooter. They tackled him, subdued him, and, in the words of the police chief, rendered him “no longer alive.” Additional reporting later indicated that one of the students had a pocketknife and used it repeatedly until the threat was over. It was brutal, and it was tragic, but it was also the kind of response that actually stops evil instead of cowering in the face of it.

I have said for years that I do not like the way we train people to respond to mass casualty events. We tell them to “run, hide, fight,” as though fighting were some regrettable last resort rather than the morally necessary thing to do when someone is murdering innocent people in front of you. My view is very simple: if a shooter is in a room full of people and he is the only one with a weapon, then every able-bodied man in that room should turn and converge on him. Yes, some people may get hurt in the process. That is awful, but if we make a habit of meeting evil with decisive force, we will eventually see less of it.

I remember once being on a military installation during the Obama years and seeing a poster instructing soldiers that in the event of a mass shooting they should run away, hide, and only fight as a last resort. Underneath all of that was the phrase, “Don’t be a hero.” I remember standing there thinking that if there is one place on earth where we ought to be cultivating heroism, it is on an American military base. The idea that we would tell our soldiers not to be heroes is the kind of moral confusion that only a very soft and very unserious culture could produce. At Old Dominion, those students rejected that message instinctively, and I thank God they did. May the memory of Lieutenant Colonel Brandon Shaw be a blessing.

The second attack took place at what was described as the nation’s largest synagogue, located in Detroit. An assailant rammed his vehicle into the entrance and opened fire through the windows at security personnel. In that case, the outcome was different for one very important reason: the synagogue had prepared. Security had recently conducted active-shooter training, they were already on high alert, and they were equipped to respond. The guards neutralized the threat before the attacker managed to kill anyone inside. That is not luck. That is what preparation looks like, and it is the kind of sober realism more institutions in the West are going to need in the months and years ahead.

According to the information I cited in the live, both of these attackers were American citizens, but both had been radicalized. In the case of the Old Dominion shooter, I noted that he had previously been arrested in 2013 for material support to ISIS, imprisoned, and then released in 2024. Whatever the final public record says about every detail in that case, the broader pattern is not hard to see. The threat is not theoretical, and it is not entirely external. Radicalization is already present inside our own borders, and wartime conditions only make that more dangerous.

Nor were these the only incidents worth noting. There was a thwarted synagogue attack in Norway, additional attacks in Israel including a stabbing and an attempted vehicle ramming, and the grim reality that in Israel these kinds of attacks have become so common they barely make international news anymore. That fact alone ought to tell us something. One side in this broader conflict has normalized violence against civilians to such a degree that the outside world has become numb to it. When attacks pile up in this many countries within such a short period of time, and when the same ideological slogans accompany them over and over again, it becomes absurd to pretend we do not recognize the common denominator.

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This War Isn’t Slowing Down—And That Changes Everything

In a recent briefing, President Donald Trump made something unmistakably clear: this war is not operating on a timeline, and it is not approaching a natural pause. Instead, it is accelerating in both scope and intensity, moving beyond limited strikes into a sustained campaign that is beginning to reshape the strategic landscape of the Middle East in real time.

That reality alone should force a reassessment of how this conflict is being understood, because what may have initially appeared to be a short, decisive military operation is now evolving into something far more complex, with consequences that extend well beyond the immediate battlefield.

From Targeted Strikes to Sustained Pressure

The early phase of the war was defined by overwhelming force, as the United States and its allies executed a series of large-scale precision strikes against Iranian military infrastructure. Thousands of targets were hit, including missile systems, naval assets, and weapons production facilities, resulting in the significant degradation of Iran’s conventional military capabilities.

In addition to the air campaign, the United States implemented a sweeping naval blockade designed to isolate Iran economically and militarily, effectively placing the entirety of its coastline under surveillance and control.

At first glance, these actions created the impression of a decisive and controlled campaign, one in which the outcome seemed largely predetermined by the imbalance of military power.

But wars are rarely decided in their opening phase.

A War That Has Moved to the Sea

What has emerged more recently—and what the latest developments highlight—is a shift toward a more dangerous and unpredictable phase centered on maritime conflict.

The Strait of Hormuz, one of the most strategically critical waterways in the world, has become a focal point of confrontation, with Iranian forces targeting commercial vessels and attempting to disrupt global shipping lanes. In response, the United States has escalated its posture, ordering naval forces to take direct and lethal action against Iranian boats engaged in mine-laying operations.

This directive represents more than a tactical adjustment; it signals a transition into a more aggressive and persistent form of engagement, one that increases the likelihood of miscalculation and rapid escalation.

The presence of multiple U.S. warships, aircraft, and mine-clearing operations in the region underscores the seriousness of the situation, as does the growing number of incidents involving attacks on commercial shipping.

What is unfolding in the Strait is not a sideshow—it is a central front in a conflict that now directly impacts global trade and energy markets.

Why Dominance Does Not Equal Resolution

Despite the clear military advantage held by the United States, there are signs that the conflict is entering a phase where superiority alone may not be enough to achieve a decisive outcome.

Iran’s naval capabilities have been severely degraded, and a large portion of its military infrastructure has been damaged or destroyed.

And yet, the continued ability of Iranian forces to disrupt shipping, deploy mines, and conduct asymmetric attacks reveals a deeper truth about modern warfare: even a weakened adversary can remain dangerous when it adapts its strategy.

This is particularly evident in the use of small, fast-attack boats and decentralized tactics, which allow Iran to operate in ways that are difficult to fully counter through conventional means.

In other words, the battlefield has shifted from one of direct confrontation to one of persistent disruption.

The Strategic Stakes Are Global

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The War Is Expanding in Ways Most People Still Don’t Understand

When you look at a war from a distance, it often appears as a series of disconnected events—headlines that flare up for a moment before being replaced by the next crisis—but when you step closer, when you begin to follow the patterns instead of the noise, you start to see something else entirely taking shape.

That’s where we are right now.

Natanz (satellite view)
Natanz (satellite view)

 

Because what’s happening in the Middle East is no longer just a regional conflict or a contained military campaign; it is evolving into something broader, something more complex, and something that carries consequences far beyond the battlefield itself.

And yet, much of the world still hasn’t caught up to that reality.

 

A Campaign That Looks Decisive—On the Surface

From a strictly military perspective, the United States and its allies have demonstrated overwhelming capability in the early phase of this conflict, applying sustained pressure across multiple domains in a way that has steadily degraded Iran’s ability to operate as it once did.

Precision strikes have targeted key infrastructure, weapons systems, and logistical networks, while naval and air forces have established a level of dominance that allows for continued operations with relatively limited resistance.

In the span of weeks, thousands of targets have been hit, and the cumulative effect of those strikes is beginning to show, not just in the reduction of missile and drone activity, but in the overall tempo of Iran’s response.

There are fewer launches, fewer coordinated attacks, and more signs that the system is being strained.

From the outside, it looks like momentum is clearly on one side.

But that is only part of the story.

 

The Reality Beneath the Surface

Wars are rarely decided by what happens in the opening phase, and they are almost never as simple as they appear in the early days when one side seems to hold a decisive advantage.

Because beneath the visible structures—the bases, the launchers, the facilities—there exists a deeper layer of power that is far more difficult to dismantle.

In Iran’s case, that layer is not confined to a single institution or location; it is distributed across a network of political, military, and economic forces that are designed to function even under extreme pressure.

The clerical leadership provides ideological continuity, the civilian government maintains a façade of governance, and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps operates as the backbone of real authority, controlling not only military assets but significant portions of the country’s economic infrastructure.

This is not a system that collapses simply because key targets are destroyed. It adapts. It absorbs damage. And it continues.

 

Why Air Power Has Limits

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