A British tabloid blared that the U.S. is gearing up to seize ports and airfields in Venezuela. That makes for spicy clicks—but it doesn’t match the legal language, the logistics, or the real-world indicators. I’ve trained and served on teams that actually seize airfields. If that were in the works, we’d see unmistakable prep. We’re not seeing it. The bigger near-term risk? Continued strikes on drug-running assets—and a much higher likelihood of U.S.-Israeli coordination against Iran.
Trump’s Ultimatum to Hamas: Same Script, New Deadline
On Truth Social, President Trump warned Hamas to accept a peace deal by Sunday 6:00 p.m. (Washington, DC) or “all hell… will break out.” I’d love a deal, but I’m skeptical. The decision-makers in Hamas profit from perpetual war. We’ve heard “hell will break loose” before—with little U.S. follow-through beyond letting Israel keep doing what it’s been doing.
Greta’s “Selfie Flotilla” Wasn’t Humanitarian (Because There Was No Aid)
The IDF intercepted the flotilla that tried to enter Gazan waters handed out sandwiches, detained folks—including Greta Thunberg—and prepared deportations. The boats reportedly carried party drugs but no relief supplies. If you’ve seen real abductions from October 7th, you know the difference. This was performance activism that burned ~$500,000—money that could have fed tens of thousands for a month—on a PR stunt.
Activism that helps cameras instead of people is vanity, not virtue.
“Going to War” with Venezuela? Let’s Bayonet the Balloon
A tabloid headline shouted: “US military preparing to seize ports and airfields in Venezuela.” Here’s the sober cut:
Legal framing ≠ full war. The administration’s memo to Congress described a “non-international armed conflict” with cartels. That’s a legal term of art, not a declaration of war.
Seizing ports/airfields is loud. I served in the 75th Ranger Regiment (’87–’91) and jumped onto airfields. If we were truly prepping that, you’d see pre-positioned logistics, NOTAMs/NAVWARNs, air tasking changes, and a big footprint that’s hard to hide. We don’t see it.
Panama 1989 vs. Venezuela today. In Operation Just Cause, we invaded a country of ~2.5M with tens of thousands of troops, serious air and armor, and weeks of dedicated training. Venezuela is ~40M. Taking and holding ground there would be exponentially more complex.
What Venezuela does have
Open-source clips show Soviet-era anti-ship missiles (likely P-15 Termit/“Styx” class) moving around. They’re old, loud on radar, and easier to jam/decoy than modern systems—but in mass they can task-saturate defenses. U.S. carrier groups layer Aegis/SM-2/ESSM/CIWS and countermeasures for precisely this threat. It’s manageable—but not trivial.
The realistic playbook
High: More maritime interdictions of cartel “fishing boats” and smugglers off Venezuela.
Medium: Limited strikes on drug labs/trans-shipment sites ashore if intelligence is solid.
Low: A ground invasion to seize ports/airfields. That would also nuke any dreams of a Nobel and hand Moscow/Tehran a propaganda win.
Why This Matters Beyond Caracas
Russia, Iran, and China would love to see America bogged down in South America—anything to dilute our attention from Ukraine and the Middle East. My read: A U.S.-Israeli strike package against Iran is more likely in the near term than Marines storming Venezuelan ports. Also notable: a sizable cluster of aerial refueling assets has been spotted in the Mediterranean—fuel follows intent.
Mailbag Highlights (from the live Q&A)
“Is Venezuela as bad as Panama in ’89?” In several ways, worse—economically and institutionally.
“Would Brazil get involved?” Brazil’s posture is about blocking Venezuelan access to Guyana, not joining a U.S.-Venezuela fight.
“Could spec ops take out Maduro?” Possible in theory; risky in practice. He’s ring-fenced by Cuban and Wagner security. Risk of Russian casualties = geopolitical blowback.
“Cyberattacks if Europe ‘kicks off’?” Already happening daily; they’d intensify.
“Government shutdown hurting troops?” Politicians won’t tolerate troops missing pay; “essential services” keep running. The bigger question is what bloated government shouldn’t be doing in the first place.
The Rangers taught us to become extremely good at one thing: violence on command—under control. Seizing airfields meant learning everything from hot-wiring bulldozers to clearing runways to keeping a tight grip on self-discipline off-duty. That discipline still frames how I assess headlines today: verify the logistics, not the rhetoric.
What to Watch Next
Maritime interdictions off Venezuela (numbers, frequency, and targets)
Movement and basing of U.S. tankers/long-range strike aircraft
Israeli readiness indicators; U.S.-Israel joint signaling toward Iran
Venezuelan regime messaging and missile dispersal along the coast
If you missed the LIVE, you can watch it HERE