A British tabloid blared that the U.S. is gearing up to seize ports and airfields in Venezuela. That makes for spicy clicks—but it doesn’t match the legal language, the logistics, or the real-world indicators. I’ve trained and served on teams that actually seize airfields. If that were in the works, we’d see unmistakable prep. We’re not seeing it. The bigger near-term risk? Continued strikes on drug-running assets—and a much higher likelihood of U.S.-Israeli coordination against Iran.

Trump’s Ultimatum to Hamas: Same Script, New Deadline

On Truth Social, President Trump warned Hamas to accept a peace deal by Sunday 6:00 p.m. (Washington, DC) or “all hell… will break out.” I’d love a deal, but I’m skeptical. The decision-makers in Hamas profit from perpetual war. We’ve heard “hell will break loose” before—with little U.S. follow-through beyond letting Israel keep doing what it’s been doing.

Greta’s “Selfie Flotilla” Wasn’t Humanitarian (Because There Was No Aid)

The IDF intercepted the flotilla that tried to enter Gazan waters handed out sandwiches, detained folks—including Greta Thunberg—and prepared deportations. The boats reportedly carried party drugs but no relief supplies. If you’ve seen real abductions from October 7th, you know the difference. This was performance activism that burned ~$500,000—money that could have fed tens of thousands for a month—on a PR stunt.

Activism that helps cameras instead of people is vanity, not virtue.

“Going to War” with Venezuela? Let’s Bayonet the Balloon

A tabloid headline shouted: “US military preparing to seize ports and airfields in Venezuela.” Here’s the sober cut:

• Legal framing ≠ full war. The administration’s memo to Congress described a “non-international armed conflict” with cartels. That’s a legal term of art, not a declaration of war.

• Seizing ports/airfields is loud. I served in the 75th Ranger Regiment (’87–’91) and jumped onto airfields. If we were truly prepping that, you’d see pre-positioned logistics, NOTAMs/NAVWARNs, air tasking changes, and a big footprint that’s hard to hide. We don’t see it.

• Panama 1989 vs. Venezuela today. In Operation Just Cause, we invaded a country of ~2.5M with tens of thousands of troops, serious air and armor, and weeks of dedicated training. Venezuela is ~40M. Taking and holding ground there would be exponentially more complex.

What Venezuela does have

Open-source clips show Soviet-era anti-ship missiles (likely P-15 Termit/“Styx” class) moving around. They’re old, loud on radar, and easier to jam/decoy than modern systems—but in mass they can task-saturate defenses. U.S. carrier groups layer Aegis/SM-2/ESSM/CIWS and countermeasures for precisely this threat. It’s manageable—but not trivial.

The realistic playbook

• High: More maritime interdictions of cartel “fishing boats” and smugglers off Venezuela.

• Medium: Limited strikes on drug labs/trans-shipment sites ashore if intelligence is solid.

• Low: A ground invasion to seize ports/airfields. That would also nuke any dreams of a Nobel and hand Moscow/Tehran a propaganda win.

Why This Matters Beyond Caracas

Russia, Iran, and China would love to see America bogged down in South America—anything to dilute our attention from Ukraine and the Middle East. My read: A U.S.-Israeli strike package against Iran is more likely in the near term than Marines storming Venezuelan ports. Also notable: a sizable cluster of aerial refueling assets has been spotted in the Mediterranean—fuel follows intent.

Mailbag Highlights (from the live Q&A)

• “Is Venezuela as bad as Panama in ’89?” In several ways, worse—economically and institutionally.

• “Would Brazil get involved?” Brazil’s posture is about blocking Venezuelan access to Guyana, not joining a U.S.-Venezuela fight.

• “Could spec ops take out Maduro?” Possible in theory; risky in practice. He’s ring-fenced by Cuban and Wagner security. Risk of Russian casualties = geopolitical blowback.

• “Cyberattacks if Europe ‘kicks off’?” Already happening daily; they’d intensify.

• “Government shutdown hurting troops?” Politicians won’t tolerate troops missing pay; “essential services” keep running. The bigger question is what bloated government shouldn’t be doing in the first place.

The Rangers taught us to become extremely good at one thing: violence on command—under control. Seizing airfields meant learning everything from hot-wiring bulldozers to clearing runways to keeping a tight grip on self-discipline off-duty. That discipline still frames how I assess headlines today: verify the logistics, not the rhetoric.

What to Watch Next

• Maritime interdictions off Venezuela (numbers, frequency, and targets)

• Movement and basing of U.S. tankers/long-range strike aircraft

• Israeli readiness indicators; U.S.-Israel joint signaling toward Iran

• Venezuelan regime messaging and missile dispersal along the coast

If you missed the LIVE, you can watch it HERE

Forgotten Not Gone (FNG) is a veteran-run nonprofit on a mission to fight veteran suicide through activity and community. Instead of pills or isolation, they get vets moving—most famously with their Veteran Trike Brigade, where recumbent trikes become a tool for healing, connection, and hope. Built by veterans who know the struggle firsthand, FNG has helped thousands rediscover purpose, camaraderie, and life after service.

Secretary of War Pete Hegseth hauled every U.S. flag officer—generals and admirals, more than 800 of them—into Quantico. Not a Zoom, not a memo, not a mil-spec Teams call where everybody’s muted and nobody knows it. In person. Fly in, sit down, look the man in the eye.

Why? Because he wanted to deliver a change of era, not just a change of policy.

There was plenty of speculation beforehand—some of it silly (coup, anyone?). I told you last week the simplest answer was the right one: he was going to reset the culture of the U.S. military. And that’s exactly what he did. Trump showed up and spoke too, but let’s be honest—his improv rallies don’t land like a disciplined, written, memorized commander’s brief. Hegseth’s remarks were the speech I’ve been praying to hear from a SecDef—or in this case, a Secretary of War—since before the Obama years.

From Defense to War

Hegseth’s core thesis was simple enough to tattoo on a forearm: we fight wars to win. Defense is constant; war is rare, decisive, and done on our terms. We do not hobble warfighters with needlessly restrictive rules of engagement. We intimidate, demoralize, hunt, and—if necessary—kill the enemies of the United States. Full stop.

That’s not bloodlust. That’s clarity. And clarity saves lives—ours.

The Standards Are Back (and Some of You Won’t Like It)

This is where some folks in that auditorium started sweating through their Class As.

Hegseth rolled out ten directives—think of them as the “1991 Test.” If you served back then, you know the vibe: meritocracy, combat readiness, no social engineering, no endless PowerPoints replacing range time.

• One combat standard. Every designated combat-arms job returns to the highest male standard of performance—because physics doesn’t care about feelings. Women who meet the standard? Welcome. But there’s no “pink PT chart” in a firefight.