Well folks, President Trump is now saying that the Iran deal has been approved at the highest levels and, in what appears to be a significant gesture toward de-escalation, he has reportedly canceled the next round of planned strikes. Under normal circumstances, that would be exactly the sort of headline markets like to hear, diplomats like to hear, and frankly ordinary people all over the world like to hear because everybody would prefer to see this thing end at a negotiating table rather than continue down the path of military escalation. The problem, however, is that the Iranians do not appear to be describing the situation in the same way, and whenever you have one side talking as though an agreement has been reached while the other side continues acting as though leverage is still being accumulated, you should immediately start asking whether both parties are actually reading from the same script.

What makes this particularly concerning is that the actions we are seeing on the ground do not necessarily line up with the optimistic language being used in public. The International Atomic Energy Agency has now formally declared Iran non-compliant for the first time in nearly twenty years, which is not some minor bureaucratic dispute buried deep inside a report that nobody reads. This is a significant development involving the very nuclear program that has been at the center of international concern for decades. Tehran's response was not to announce a freeze, a rollback, or a new inspection regime. Instead, Iranian officials responded by announcing plans for a new enrichment facility and additional advanced centrifuges at Fordow. Now maybe Iranian leaders believe that strengthens their negotiating position. Maybe they believe it gives them additional leverage. Maybe they think it forces Washington back to the table under different terms. Whatever the calculation may be, it is not the sort of move most observers would associate with a crisis that is rapidly approaching a peaceful conclusion.

Candace Owens says she traveled to Russia for a family vacation, but there's a lot more to this story than sightseeing and church visits. In this video, I break down her appearance at a major Kremlin-linked event, the reality of religious freedom in Russia, the role of the Russian Orthodox Church in supporting Putin's war effort, and why Moscow benefits when influential Americans promote Russia as a model Christian society. We'll separate fact from narrative and look at what is really happening behind the headlines.

For months, the central question surrounding Iran has been whether the regime can withstand the economic and military pressure being applied by the United States and its allies.

This week, a different question emerged.

What if Iran is already getting what it wants?

President Trump continues to insist that Iran cannot be allowed to obtain a nuclear weapon. During a rare televised cabinet meeting, he pointed to Iran's economic collapse, soaring inflation, and internal instability as evidence that Tehran has little choice but to negotiate. According to Trump, Iran's leadership is feeling the pressure.

The problem is that pressure alone does not guarantee results.

Recent reports out of Iran claimed that negotiators were discussing a framework that would effectively grant Tehran greater influence over the Strait of Hormuz while postponing any serious discussion of its nuclear program. The White House has since dismissed those reports as false, but the episode exposed a growing concern among regional observers.

Negotiations appear to be moving slowly, while events on the ground continue moving in Iran's favor.

The Strait of Hormuz Changes Everything

At the center of the debate is the Strait of Hormuz.

Roughly one-fifth of the world's oil supply normally passes through this narrow waterway. Whoever controls access to it holds significant leverage over global energy markets.

Before the conflict escalated, Iran did not possess the level of influence over shipping traffic that it does today. Now, according to several military analysts, Tehran has demonstrated an ability to disrupt one of the world's most important commercial chokepoints.

That reality is shaping every negotiation.

Retired General Jack Keane warned that Iran views control of the Strait as a strategic prize and has little incentive to surrender that leverage voluntarily. Gulf Arab states are watching closely. Their economies depend on stable energy exports, and many are increasingly uncertain about how the current negotiations will end.

The longer uncertainty continues, the more regional governments may begin making their own accommodations with Tehran.

Military Force Has Limits

Former CENTCOM Commander General Joseph Votel offered another important perspective.

Military action can weaken Iran. It can destroy infrastructure, degrade capabilities, and impose costs. But military force alone is unlikely to produce a lasting solution.