The Economic Impact of War: Israel vs. US in 2024

The threat environment around President Donald Trump has reached a level I have never seen before—and new reporting about what happened during his trip to Turkey shows just how serious it has become.

When Trump left Ankara after meeting with NATO leaders on July 8, the public was initially told that he had used an older Air Force One for nostalgic reasons. Then we heard that the newer aircraft was unavailable. After that, reports suggested that security concerns had influenced the decision.

Now we are learning that the situation was much more dramatic.

According to new reporting, American and Israeli intelligence had picked up a credible Iranian threat against the president’s aircraft. The danger was considered serious enough that the Secret Service and the military carried out the kind of deception you would expect to see in a Hollywood thriller.

Trump boarded the older Air Force One with members of the press pool and his staff. Everyone aboard was reportedly instructed to close the window shades. A catering truck then pulled alongside the aircraft as though it were delivering food.

Instead, the president got into the truck.

The vehicle carried him across the tarmac to a smaller, less conspicuous government aircraft—a C-32A—which then flew him out of Ankara. Many of the people traveling with him apparently did not know what was happening until later.

Think about that for a moment. The president of the United States had to slip off Air Force One in a catering vehicle and leave a NATO summit aboard a smaller decoy aircraft because the Iranian threat was considered credible enough that officials feared his plane could be attacked.

That tells us at least two things. First, Iran’s threats against President Trump cannot be dismissed as empty propaganda. Second, the United States cannot afford to assume that every NATO ally can provide a secure operating environment simply because its flag appears on the right list in Washington.

Israel reportedly helped identify the threat. If that intelligence contributed to getting the president home alive, Americans ought to remember it.

Why Are Missile Batteries Guarding a Golf Course?

The extraordinary precautions did not end in Turkey.

Recent images from Trump’s golf club in Bedminster, New Jersey, show Avenger short-range air-defense systems positioned nearby and surrounded by concertina wire. These Humvee-mounted systems carry Stinger missiles and a .50-caliber machine gun.

That is not normal golf-course scenery.

The Avenger is designed to protect troops and critical assets from low-flying aircraft, helicopters, and other aerial threats. If officials are deploying that kind of equipment while the president plays golf, they are not worried only about a hobbyist accidentally flying a DJI drone into restricted airspace.

They are preparing for the possibility of a deliberate attack.

The obvious threat is a small commercial or homemade drone modified to carry explosives. These aircraft can fly low, move quickly, and approach from directions that make them difficult to detect. They are also cheap. That creates an ugly economic problem: firing a Stinger missile costing hundreds of thousands of dollars at a drone worth a few hundred or a few thousand dollars is wildly inefficient.

But if that drone is headed toward the president, nobody is going to worry about the price of the missile.

The harder problem is engagement range. A small drone can be difficult to detect and hit before it gets close enough for an explosion—or even falling debris—to injure the person being protected. A manually aimed machine gun is not an ideal answer to a dinner-plate-sized target moving at highway speed. Missiles also have practical limitations at very short distances.

That is why presidential protection now requires a layered counter-drone system: radar and other sensors to detect the aircraft, electronic systems to disrupt or seize control of it, directed-energy weapons to damage its electronics, and kinetic weapons as the final line of defense.

After the assassination attempt in Butler, Pennsylvania—where the attacker had reportedly flown a drone over the venue before climbing onto a roof—the Secret Service accelerated its counter-drone efforts. That was necessary, but it also revealed how far behind the United States had allowed itself to fall.

The Drone War Is Already Here

A large and sudden influx of migrants into Spain’s North African enclave of Ceuta has created a situation that should be understood as a broader warning to Western nations that attempt to separate compassion from enforcement, borders, and consequences. Ceuta, a Spanish territory located on the northern coast of Africa and directly adjacent to Morocco, has historically maintained a population of roughly 80,000 people, yet local authorities now report that tens of thousands of migrants have arrived in an extremely short period, with some estimates suggesting the number may exceed 60,000.

The scale of this demographic shock is difficult to overstate, as it effectively places a population nearly equal to the city’s own residents into a confined urban space without adequate preparation for housing, screening, or public order. Reports from the ground describe migrants entering through gaps in border fencing, bypassing coastal defenses, and in some cases swimming into Spanish territory, with footage showing both celebratory scenes upon arrival and confrontations with security forces overwhelmed by the volume of crossings.

Local officials in Ceuta have called for emergency national intervention, including military deployment and reinforced border control, as they confront a situation that has rapidly exceeded municipal capacity. National political discourse, however, continues to emphasize themes of solidarity and inclusion, language that appears increasingly disconnected from the operational reality faced by those responsible for maintaining order on the ground.

This crisis is not an isolated development but part of a long-established migration pattern that I have previously reported on in the region. The geography of Ceuta and Melilla, Spain’s two enclaves on the North African coast, creates a uniquely accessible entry point into Europe, where migrants can reach Spanish jurisdiction not only by sea but also by crossing land barriers that separate the enclaves from Morocco.

During earlier reporting in the region, I encountered individuals who had repeatedly attempted entry despite deportation, including one Algerian migrant who described multiple crossings and returns, driven by the economic disparity between North Africa and Europe. His explanation was straightforward: the opportunity available on the European side of the border represented a level of income and stability that was otherwise unattainable in his country of origin.

This economic imbalance is central to understanding the persistence of migration flows, as individuals from lower-income regions will naturally seek access to higher-income economies when physical proximity makes such movement feasible. While it is important to recognize the human motivations involved, it is equally important to acknowledge that these flows are shaped by policy decisions that determine how easily entry is achieved and how consistently immigration rules are enforced.

Spain’s approach, which has increasingly allowed irregular entrants to remain and eventually regularize their status, creates a system in which initial illegal entry can lead to long-term residence and access to broader European mobility. As a result, Ceuta functions not merely as a local issue but as a gateway into a wider continental migration system.

Migration as a Strategic Tool

There is also a geopolitical dimension to these events that cannot be ignored, as migration flows have at times been influenced by state behavior and used as leverage in diplomatic disputes. In previous incidents involving Spain and Morocco, border enforcement patterns appeared to shift in ways that coincided with political tensions, resulting in sudden surges of crossings that placed immediate pressure on Spanish authorities.

This dynamic reflects a broader reality in which migration can be used as an instrument of statecraft, not through direct military confrontation but through the manipulation of border permeability. Unlike conventional conflict, this form of pressure exploits legal and humanitarian frameworks that make it difficult for receiving countries to respond with force, even when the scale of entry overwhelms administrative capacity.

A large and sudden influx of migrants into Spain’s North African enclave of Ceuta has created a situation that should be understood as a broader warning to Western nations that attempt to separate compassion from enforcement, borders, and consequences. Ceuta, a Spanish territory located on the northern coast of Africa and directly adjacent to Morocco, has historically maintained a population of roughly 80,000 people, yet local authorities now report that tens of thousands of migrants have arrived in an extremely short period, with some estimates suggesting the number may exceed 60,000.

The scale of this demographic shock is difficult to overstate, as it effectively places a population nearly equal to the city’s own residents into a confined urban space without adequate preparation for housing, screening, or public order. Reports from the ground describe migrants entering through gaps in border fencing, bypassing coastal defenses, and in some cases swimming into Spanish territory, with footage showing both celebratory scenes upon arrival and confrontations with security forces overwhelmed by the volume of crossings.

Local officials in Ceuta have called for emergency national intervention, including military deployment and reinforced border control, as they confront a situation that has rapidly exceeded municipal capacity. National political discourse, however, continues to emphasize themes of solidarity and inclusion, language that appears increasingly disconnected from the operational reality faced by those responsible for maintaining order on the ground.

This crisis is not an isolated development but part of a long-established migration pattern that I have previously reported on in the region. The geography of Ceuta and Melilla, Spain’s two enclaves on the North African coast, creates a uniquely accessible entry point into Europe, where migrants can reach Spanish jurisdiction not only by sea but also by crossing land barriers that separate the enclaves from Morocco.

During earlier reporting in the region, I encountered individuals who had repeatedly attempted entry despite deportation, including one Algerian migrant who described multiple crossings and returns, driven by the economic disparity between North Africa and Europe. His explanation was straightforward: the opportunity available on the European side of the border represented a level of income and stability that was otherwise unattainable in his country of origin.

This economic imbalance is central to understanding the persistence of migration flows, as individuals from lower-income regions will naturally seek access to higher-income economies when physical proximity makes such movement feasible. While it is important to recognize the human motivations involved, it is equally important to acknowledge that these flows are shaped by policy decisions that determine how easily entry is achieved and how consistently immigration rules are enforced.

Spain’s approach, which has increasingly allowed irregular entrants to remain and eventually regularize their status, creates a system in which initial illegal entry can lead to long-term residence and access to broader European mobility. As a result, Ceuta functions not merely as a local issue but as a gateway into a wider continental migration system.

Migration as a Strategic Tool

There is also a geopolitical dimension to these events that cannot be ignored, as migration flows have at times been influenced by state behavior and used as leverage in diplomatic disputes. In previous incidents involving Spain and Morocco, border enforcement patterns appeared to shift in ways that coincided with political tensions, resulting in sudden surges of crossings that placed immediate pressure on Spanish authorities.

This dynamic reflects a broader reality in which migration can be used as an instrument of statecraft, not through direct military confrontation but through the manipulation of border permeability. Unlike conventional conflict, this form of pressure exploits legal and humanitarian frameworks that make it difficult for receiving countries to respond with force, even when the scale of entry overwhelms administrative capacity.