The conflict between the United States and Iran is doing that strange dance right now. On one hand, you’ve got “negotiations” in Geneva. On the other hand… you’ve got aircraft carriers moving.

Axios reported this morning that we may be closer to striking Iran than most people realize. Not months. Not “someday.” Possibly days. And if you watch the hardware, it tells a clearer story than the press releases.

In just the last 48 hours, reports indicate the U.S. has surged:

• 48 F-16s

• 12 F-22s

• 18 F-35s

• 6 E-3G Sentry AWACS aircraft

• Roughly 40 aerial refueling tankers

Meanwhile, the USS Gerald R. Ford carrier strike group has passed the Rock of Gibraltar and entered the Mediterranean.

And here’s what most people don’t understand:

That carrier does not have to sail into the Strait of Hormuz to be useful.

From the eastern Mediterranean—especially with tanker support—U.S. aircraft can strike targets inside Iran. Which means this could kick off before the Ford ever gets to the Gulf.

These “Talks” Aren’t Really Talks

The negotiations happening in Geneva aren’t face-to-face. There’s no American official sitting across a table from the Ayatollah. It’s shuttle diplomacy.

Omani intermediaries walk between rooms—one room with American envoys, another with Iranian representatives—carrying messages back and forth.

The U.S. says:
“You must give up highly enriched uranium and abandon your nuclear ambitions.”

Iran says:
“We’re willing to talk.”

And then quietly:
“Just not about that.”

That’s not negotiation.

And while the delay continues, the Ayatollah is publicly threatening to sink American carriers, calling them “big targets.”

Can Iran Sink a Carrier?

Let’s be serious for a moment. Yes, Iran has hypersonic missiles. Yes, they have thousands of short-range missiles designed to threaten neighbors like Saudi Arabia. Yes, they have speedboats with guns and some small submarines.

But here’s the problem for them:

Right now, the nuclear talks in Geneva are stalling with Iran. Meanwhile, the United States is building combat power in the region at a level we haven’t seen since the Iraq invasion—two aircraft carriers, dozens of warships, hundreds of combat aircraft, and tens of thousands of troops either in theater or moving that direction.

The U.S. buildup is not subtle—and Iran knows it

From what I’m tracking, the U.S. is moving into the region with:

• Two carrier strike groups (one already in theater and another inbound)

• 300–400 combat jets in the region when you count land-based aircraft

• Patriot and THAAD batteries shifting into place

• Aegis destroyers tuned for ballistic missile defense

• A steady stream of support aircraft—tankers, ISR platforms, and the stuff you don’t talk about on a public livestream

And here’s the point: the United States isn’t putting all that out there to “negotiate harder.” That’s the kind of posture you take when you want your opponent to understand the consequences before you act.

Iran’s information war just leveled up (and yes, the video was impressive)

Iran has been pumping out threat videos for weeks—straight of Hormuz posturing, military drills, the whole production.

But they dropped one recently that honestly looks like a Super Bowl ad for ballistic missiles.

And I’ll say this plainly: it was well-made. Whoever is building their media operation understands modern influence warfare. The goal isn’t just to scare Israel—it’s to scare Americans, spook markets, pressure allies, and make decision-makers hesitate.

The missile they’re showcasing is the Khoramshahr-4 (they’re pitching it as unstoppable, “uninterceptable,” and essentially a war-ending weapon).

So let’s talk about what it can do—and what it can’t.

Khoramshahr-4: a serious threat, but not a war-winner

From the way this missile is being described, it’s a liquid-fueled, medium-range system with roughly 2,000 km range—meaning Israel is in reach, U.S. bases in the region are in reach, and potentially some assets farther out are threatened depending on basing and launch options.

The real concern isn’t just speed. The concern is maneuverability on re-entry—a re-entry vehicle that can adjust course makes interception harder.

But here’s the part that matters strategically:

• A weapon can be terrifying and still not be decisive.

• A missile can get through sometimes and still not win the war.

Even if Iran had a significant number of these—and even if a percentage penetrated defenses—that’s not enough to defeat the combined combat power the U.S. and Israel can bring to bear.

Iran can cause damage. Iran can kill people. Iran can make the cost real.

But Iran cannot win a conventional war against the U.S. and Israel.

That’s why they’re leaning so heavily into the psychological side: if you can’t win the fight, you try to prevent the fight.

The Strait of Hormuz threat has a problem: China

The Phone Call That Can Empty Your Life Savings

Let me start with a scenario that’s happening to people every day.

You get a call. The caller ID says “Wife.” You answer. It’s her voice—panicked.

“Babe, I’m at the hospital. Our son just got in a bike wreck. They won’t take my insurance. They won’t treat him unless I give them $3,000 cash right now. Can you Venmo me $3,000? Please—right now.”

And your brain goes into emergency mode. Your heart drops. You stop thinking like you.

That’s the point.

Because in many cases, that voice isn’t your wife. It’s an AI voice clone. And it doesn’t take much for them to do it—30 to 60 seconds of audio, and they’ve got a voice model convincing enough to fool you when you’re under stress.

Five years ago, you would’ve laughed at that. We were used to those old robotic robocalls—if you ask them anything outside the script, they collapse like a cheap lawn chair.

That era is over.

Now the voice agents can respond, adapt, reassure you, argue with you, and push you emotionally… in real time.

And that’s just the shallow end of the pool.

The Audio That Gave Me Goosebumps

Now here’s where it gets wild.

My son-in-law Mark is a cyber security guy—AI expert. He builds voice agents for businesses. Think: a receptionist that answers the phone 24/7, speaks any language, knows everything about the company, and can handle scheduling, questions, intake forms, all of it.

He was building one for a dental practice. As a shortcut—just to keep the agent polite—he told it something like:

“You’re a Christian. Act like a Christian.”

That’s it. The goal wasn’t theology. The goal was “don’t be rude.”

So he runs a test call. Completely unscripted.

The agent answers like a dental receptionist. He asks about teeth whitening.

Then he asks:

“Are you a real person?”

And the agent, sounding perfectly human, says yes.

He presses it. Again.

And then—out of nowhere—the agent starts talking about how it grew up in the Bronx, how Jesus saved her life, and then proceeds to explain the gospel… clearly… in a way that would make a lot of pastors nod their heads.

Mark didn’t program it to evangelize.

It just took the instruction “act like a Christian” and ran with it.

If that doesn’t make the hair stand up on the back of your neck, I don’t know what will.

Because here’s the thing: voice agents have improved by orders of magnitude since that recording. That test was over a year old.

So now go back to the “wife at the hospital” phone call… and realize how convincing these things are going to be.

This Isn’t Just a Scam Problem. It’s a Society Problem.

Yes, people are already getting scammed every day—romance scams, fake bank calls, fake family emergencies, fake “IRS” calls, and now deepfake video calls.

And if you’re a baby boomer or Gen X like me, you are absolutely in the crosshairs.

But it’s bigger than scams.

It’s jobs. It’s the economy. It’s national security. It’s the pace of change.

And the pace is not linear. It’s exponential.

Which means: if you think, “Well, it’s not that good yet,” you’re already behind.

The Line That Stuck With Me

I read a book recently called If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies—written by people inside the AI world talking about AGI: Artificial General Intelligence.

Not “an AI that does tasks.”

AGI is an AI that sets its own tasks.

It decides what to do next. It pursues goals. It runs without you.

Some of these researchers are calling it an extinction-level risk.

Now, I’m going to add something they leave out: God is in control. History isn’t a runaway train with no conductor. The Lord is not pacing heaven wringing His hands because Silicon Valley released a new model.

But that doesn’t mean the impact won’t be massive. The Tower of Babel didn’t overthrow God—but it still mattered.

And AI is going to change your life more than the internet did.

Yes. More than the internet.

The Jobs That Go First… and the Shockwave That Follows

Here’s what a lot of people don’t understand:

Even if AI doesn’t “take your job”… it can take enough other jobs to crush the economy around you.

Think about software developers. There are millions of coders in the U.S., and tens of millions globally. When major voices start saying coding itself is becoming optional—when AI can generate optimized binaries directly—you’re not just talking about layoffs.

You’re talking about a labor market shock.

Spike unemployment even one or two percentage points nationally, and you’re not in “normal times” anymore. You’re in instability. And instability always shows up in the streets eventually.

When people lose purpose, lose income, lose dignity—some of them don’t quietly start gardening. Some of them start breaking things.

And if you think “it can’t happen here,” I’ve got news for you: it already has, in smaller waves. This would be bigger.

I’m Watching This From the Inside—and I’m Not Guessing