Chuck Holton
Politics • Culture • News
Syria’s Fragile Lines Shift Again
Aleppo’s Fall and What it Means for the Region (INCLUDING Armenia)
December 02, 2024
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Syria’s long-running conflict has taken a dramatic turn. In a stunning offensive, extremist Islamist groups led by Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) have seized significant territory, including the strategic Nayrab military airport near Aleppo. This marks the largest opposition gains in years, with territory now under their control surpassing the size of Lebanon.

A Rapid Advance

HTS, a former al-Qaeda affiliate, capitalized on Assad’s overstretched forces, sweeping through northern Syria in record time. Their gains reflect cracks in Assad’s regime as his key allies—Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah—grapple with other crises. Iran has responded by sending reinforcements from Iraqi militias, including Kata'ib Hezbollah and Fatemiyoun, to bolster Assad’s forces on the northern front lines.

Why Now?

Three factors triggered the offensive:

  1. Assad’s Airstrikes: Recent intensified bombings on opposition-held areas provoked retaliation.
  2. Israeli Strikes: Months of Israeli airstrikes weakened Assad’s forces and infrastructure.
  3. Allied Fatigue: Russia’s focus on Ukraine, Hezbollah’s troubles in Lebanon, and Iran’s struggles left Assad vulnerable.

What It Means for the Region

The chaos reverberates beyond Syria’s borders. Iran’s deployment of militias underscores its commitment to propping up Assad, but it also risks increasing tensions with Israel. With Iranian-backed fighters now active near the Golan Heights, Israel may step up its strikes on supply lines and militias, potentially dragging the region into further instability.

What It Means for Israel

The chaos near Israel’s border raises concerns over Iran’s supply routes to Hezbollah, which could disrupt the regional balance of power. Israel may face increased threats if opposition groups like HTS gain control of strategic areas—or if Iran redoubles efforts to bolster Assad.

Winners and Losers

Winner: Turkey. By leveraging its influence over some opposition groups, Ankara is deepening its reach into Syrian territory, enhancing its leverage against Assad and regional players.
Loser: Putin. Stretched thin across multiple conflicts, Russia may struggle to prioritize Assad, leaving him more isolated.

Turkey’s Ambitions: A Broader Agenda

Adding to the instability is a concerning map circulating on Turkish social media, outlining Turkey's ambitions to control Kurdish regions across Syria, Iraq, and even Armenia. Dubbed the "Turkish National Covenant," this vision extends Turkey’s reach to include Aleppo, Mosul, Kirkuk, and parts of Armenia, hinting at a much larger geopolitical strategy.

While Turkey has long sought to suppress Kurdish autonomy, this expansionist rhetoric revives painful memories for Armenia, a tiny Christian nation already reeling from past Turkish aggression. Most notably, the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war saw Turkey backing Azerbaijan in a devastating conflict that forced Armenians from their historic lands. These actions are a modern echo of Turkey’s earlier role in the Armenian Genocide of 1915, when 1.5 million Armenians were systematically killed or displaced.

The shifting battle lines in Syria reflect a fragile and volatile balance, with consequences likely to ripple across the Middle East. As Assad struggles to regain control, the involvement of regional powers ensures that this conflict remains anything but contained.

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A walking tour of Nuuk, Greenland.

Check out this new video on my Geo Zone YouTube channel. Make sure to subscribe.

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I Went to Greenland. The Truth About Trump's Claim

I stepped off the plane into Nuuk expecting “cold,” the way you expect cold when you’ve looked at a weather app and seen a number with a minus sign attached, but Greenland doesn’t really do cold as a temperature so much as it does cold as a condition—something that presses against your cheeks, creeps into your gloves, and makes the simplest choices feel like strategy, like whether you can afford to stop walking long enough to film a shot without your hands turning into useless bricks.

The first thing that hits you is how close everything feels to the edge of the world: the ocean is right there, the mountains loom like the backdrop of a survival documentary, and the snow doesn’t just “fall,” it moves sideways, drifting and pooling into ridges that force you off sidewalks and into the kind of half-plowed, half-forgotten paths where you start making peace with the idea that you might have to cut between somebody’s house just to find your way back to wherever “home” is tonight.

I walked down to the water because I wanted to see what Nuuk looks like the way Nuuk sees itself—facing outward, facing the sea—and out there, unbelievably, there was a guy in a boat, just working the icy water like it was any other day, which is the kind of detail that makes you realize how quickly humans can normalize the extraordinary when the extraordinary is what they grew up with.

And then there were the icebergs.

Not the dramatic, movie-poster ones you think of when someone says “iceberg,” but these smaller pieces that look like they broke off something much bigger and drifted in close, like the Arctic casually scattering fragments of itself along the shore for you to study up close; some of them were the size of a truck, which still qualifies as “tiny” here, and some were smaller still, but the color is what keeps pulling your eyes back—this improbable, almost luminous blue that looks like it belongs in a gemstone, not in a chunk of frozen seawater sitting on a beach.

It was around sixteen degrees when I filmed that first clip—sixteen Fahrenheit—and people kept telling me, almost cheerfully, that I was lucky, because this was “pretty warm,” and that’s the kind of local optimism you either admire or resent depending on how far into your gloves the cold has crawled.

But I didn’t come to Greenland just to confirm that it is, in fact, Greenland.

I came because I wanted to see what it feels like in a place when the President of the United States starts talking about that place the way a developer talks about an empty lot, or the way a bully talks about a smaller kid’s lunch money, and I wanted to hear it from the people who live here—people who have never had to wonder whether America is a friend, because the assumption has always been yes, of course, that’s what allies are.

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Comprehensive Report: Why Denmark and Greenland Are Not America’s Enemies


Ah, yes, the classic foreign policy move: eye a strategic chunk of ice bigger than Texas, declare it must be yours “one way or another,” and then act surprised when your long-time NATO buddy starts looking at you like you’re the ex who won’t stop texting at 3 a.m. President Trump’s revived obsession with acquiring Greenland—first floated as a cheeky real-estate deal in 2019, now upgraded to vague military-threat territory in his second term—has managed to turn a reliable ally into a diplomatic headache. But let’s be clear: Denmark and Greenland are emphatically not America’s enemies. In fact, they’re the kind of allies who show up when it counts, bleed for the cause, and then get rewarded with public musings about forced annexation. Charming.



The Post-9/11 Loyalty Test: Denmark Actually Showed Up


When the towers fell on September 11, 2001, NATO invoked Article 5 for the first (and so far only) time in its history. An attack on one is an attack on all. The United States called, and Denmark—tiny, prosperous, usually more known for pastries than combat—didn’t just RSVP. They deployed troops to the sharp end.
Denmark sent around 9,500 personnel to Afghanistan between 2002 and 2013, mostly in the brutal Helmand Province as part of the British-led task force. They fought in some of the war’s nastiest spots, suffered ambushes, IEDs, and prolonged sieges (remember Musa Qala in 2006?). The result? 43 Danish soldiers killed in Afghanistan alone—the highest per-capita loss of any NATO ally, even edging out the United States in proportional sacrifice for a nation of under 6 million people. That’s not “token support.” That’s putting skin in the game.
And it didn’t stop there. Denmark was one of the few countries (and the only Scandinavian one) to join the U.S.-led invasion and occupation of Iraq, deploying forces despite domestic controversy. Another 8 Danish soldiers died in Iraq. In total, over 50 Danish troops never came home from these post-9/11 operations.
President Obama once publicly thanked Denmark for its “extraordinary contributions” in Helmand, noting they operated “without caveat” and took “significant casualties.” Yet here we are, years later, with threats to seize Greenland dangling like a bad punchline. If that’s how we treat allies who literally died defending our collective security, no wonder the rest of NATO is side-eyeing the whole thing.


The Greenland Reality Check: Already a Cooperative Arrangement


Greenland isn’t some hostile foreign outpost—it’s Danish sovereign territory, but the U.S. has had a cozy military foothold there since World War II. The 1951 Defense of Greenland Agreement lets American forces operate bases like Pituffik Space Base (formerly Thule Air Base), with radar systems crucial for missile defense and Arctic monitoring.

U.S. planes fly over, land, and conduct operations with Danish cooperation—no need for a takeover when you already have the keys.


Denmark has consistently facilitated U.S. access while balancing Greenlandic self-governance. Recent years have seen upgrades to early-warning systems tied to ballistic missile defense, plus joint economic and environmental cooperation. In short: the current setup works for American national security interests without anyone needing to wave invasion threats around. Why risk blowing up a perfectly functional alliance over something that’s already half yours?


The Backfire Potential: Bravado Meets Reality


Trump’s approach—bluster first, details later—might play well in rally crowds, but it’s textbook overreach when directed at a NATO ally. Danish leaders (and Greenlanders, who poll at ~85% against joining the U.S.) have called it “absurd,” with warnings that any military move would spell “the end of NATO.” Other European allies are rallying behind Denmark, boosting military exercises in Greenland as a not-so-subtle signal. Threatening to invade a partner that invoked Article 5 for us, sent troops to our wars, and hosts our Arctic bases? That’s not “winning” the negotiation—it’s handing Russia and China the propaganda gift of a fractured West on a silver platter.


In the end, Denmark and Greenland aren’t enemies. They’re the friends who had your back when it was dangerous, expensive, and unpopular. Treating them like a hostile takeover target is not just bad strategy—it’s hilariously tone-deaf. Maybe next time, try diplomacy instead of threats. Or at least buy them dinner first. After all, they’ve already paid in blood.

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The Night the Sky Went Quiet

Last night, a lot of people thought it was finally happening.

American jets were spotted moving over eastern Iraq in the dark hours—right around 2:00 a.m. local time, which lines up to roughly 6:00 p.m. Eastern back home. The timing, the routing, the sudden tension in the air—everything about it looked like the opening chapter of a strike package headed toward Iran.

And then… it stopped.

At the last minute, it appears President Trump pulled the plug. The attack that seemed imminent never materialized. No explosions. No confirmation. Just silence—followed by a wave of confusion, frustration, and, inside Iran, something worse: despair.

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“We’re not shooting protesters,” they say. “We’re only shooting terrorists.”

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The truth is ugly, and it’s everywhere—if you know where to look. Security forces moving through streets on motorcycles. Automatic gunfire echoing through neighborhoods. People being detained, beaten, disappeared. Executions delayed in public—while violence continues behind a blackout.

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Earlier in the day, President Trump was asked about reports of killings and executions. His response—paraphrased—suggested he’d been told the violence was “stopping,” and that planned executions weren’t going forward.

Here’s the problem: there’s ample evidence it wasn’t stopping.

That leaves two possibilities:

  1. He’s being lied to, and nobody around him is willing to put real truth on his desk.

  2. He’s playing political theater, saying one thing publicly while keeping Iran guessing privately.

If you’ve watched Trump over the years, you know he has a pattern: he’ll often sound like he’s easing off right before applying pressure. It’s why a lot of people expected strikes that night. The posture looked like a feint—until it looked like more than a feint.

Because everything lined up.

Airspace restrictions. Civilian flight maps going dark over Iran. Shelters being opened. Reports of Iranian aircraft scrambling.

And then nothing.

 

The “Ghost Fleet” Seizure That Shouldn’t Be Ignored

While everyone was staring at Iran, the U.S. made another major move elsewhere: another very large crude carrier was seized in the Caribbean—the sixth tanker taken in this campaign.

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