Chuck Holton
Politics • Culture • News
Syria’s Fragile Lines Shift Again
Aleppo’s Fall and What it Means for the Region (INCLUDING Armenia)
December 02, 2024
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Syria’s long-running conflict has taken a dramatic turn. In a stunning offensive, extremist Islamist groups led by Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) have seized significant territory, including the strategic Nayrab military airport near Aleppo. This marks the largest opposition gains in years, with territory now under their control surpassing the size of Lebanon.

A Rapid Advance

HTS, a former al-Qaeda affiliate, capitalized on Assad’s overstretched forces, sweeping through northern Syria in record time. Their gains reflect cracks in Assad’s regime as his key allies—Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah—grapple with other crises. Iran has responded by sending reinforcements from Iraqi militias, including Kata'ib Hezbollah and Fatemiyoun, to bolster Assad’s forces on the northern front lines.

Why Now?

Three factors triggered the offensive:

  1. Assad’s Airstrikes: Recent intensified bombings on opposition-held areas provoked retaliation.
  2. Israeli Strikes: Months of Israeli airstrikes weakened Assad’s forces and infrastructure.
  3. Allied Fatigue: Russia’s focus on Ukraine, Hezbollah’s troubles in Lebanon, and Iran’s struggles left Assad vulnerable.

What It Means for the Region

The chaos reverberates beyond Syria’s borders. Iran’s deployment of militias underscores its commitment to propping up Assad, but it also risks increasing tensions with Israel. With Iranian-backed fighters now active near the Golan Heights, Israel may step up its strikes on supply lines and militias, potentially dragging the region into further instability.

What It Means for Israel

The chaos near Israel’s border raises concerns over Iran’s supply routes to Hezbollah, which could disrupt the regional balance of power. Israel may face increased threats if opposition groups like HTS gain control of strategic areas—or if Iran redoubles efforts to bolster Assad.

Winners and Losers

Winner: Turkey. By leveraging its influence over some opposition groups, Ankara is deepening its reach into Syrian territory, enhancing its leverage against Assad and regional players.
Loser: Putin. Stretched thin across multiple conflicts, Russia may struggle to prioritize Assad, leaving him more isolated.

Turkey’s Ambitions: A Broader Agenda

Adding to the instability is a concerning map circulating on Turkish social media, outlining Turkey's ambitions to control Kurdish regions across Syria, Iraq, and even Armenia. Dubbed the "Turkish National Covenant," this vision extends Turkey’s reach to include Aleppo, Mosul, Kirkuk, and parts of Armenia, hinting at a much larger geopolitical strategy.

While Turkey has long sought to suppress Kurdish autonomy, this expansionist rhetoric revives painful memories for Armenia, a tiny Christian nation already reeling from past Turkish aggression. Most notably, the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war saw Turkey backing Azerbaijan in a devastating conflict that forced Armenians from their historic lands. These actions are a modern echo of Turkey’s earlier role in the Armenian Genocide of 1915, when 1.5 million Armenians were systematically killed or displaced.

The shifting battle lines in Syria reflect a fragile and volatile balance, with consequences likely to ripple across the Middle East. As Assad struggles to regain control, the involvement of regional powers ensures that this conflict remains anything but contained.

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Hostages, Headlines, and Hard Truths: Why Israel Can’t Quit Now

 We’ve got a lot on the board: the recovery of two hostage bodies from Gaza, the renewed push into Gaza City, Israel’s clever strike on Houthi leadership, a consequential dust-up with Turkey, and a reminder—uncomfortable but necessary—of why this war began and why it must be finished.

Gaza: two bodies recovered

The IDF and Shin Bet located and recovered the bodies of two hostages from Gaza—one identified as Elon Weiss, an emergency responder murdered on October 7 and dragged across the fence. That grim accounting leaves 48 hostages still in Gaza; Israeli officials believe about 20 are alive. Israel has suspended “tactical pauses” around Gaza City to accelerate the hunt. The IDF’s 7th Brigade is pushing again into Zaytoun—for the eighth time—determined to hold ground they’ve cleared repeatedly. Why go back? Because every entry leaves behind eyes and ears—“various different kinds of intelligence-gathering devices”—that start painting a picture the moment Hamas and civilians flow back in. That picture is how you find hostages.

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Reading Armenia: Essential Books on a Nation’s Past and Present

Armenia is a land where history runs deep—etched into mountains, monasteries, and memory. Whether you are drawn to the haunting testimonies of the Armenian Genocide, the sweeping narratives of classic Armenian novels, or modern reflections on diaspora and identity, books offer one of the richest pathways into understanding Armenia. In this post, we’ll explore some of the most powerful and essential works—histories, memoirs, fiction, and travelogues—that illuminate the Armenian experience for readers around the world.

  1. The Crossing Place: A Journey Among The Armenians by Philip Marsden

    Philip Marsden’s The Crossing Place: A Journey Among the Armenians (1994 Somerset Maugham Award) is a vivid travel narrative written as the Soviet Union collapsed and Armenia faced war and hardship. As a young Englishman, Marsden journeyed through Eastern Europe and the Middle East to reach Armenia, encountering scattered Armenian communities along the way. Rather than centering on Mount Ararat or solely on the Genocide, he explored how Armenians endured exile, preserved identity, and carried a legacy of resilience. With crisp, lyrical prose, Marsden captures both landscapes and people, portraying Armenians as not just a footnote to history but a subtext—restless, tough, and bound together across borders.


  2. The Forty Days of Musa Dagh by Franz Werfel 

    Franz Werfel’s The Forty Days of Musa Dagh (1933) remains the most famous literary work on the Armenian Genocide. Based on the true story of villages that resisted Ottoman deportation orders in 1915 and survived until rescued by the French Navy, the novel became an international bestseller, translated into many languages and later adapted into film and opera. Banned by the Nazis and denounced by Turkey, it nonetheless inspired Jews under Nazi occupation and was embraced by Armenians worldwide. More than a historical novel, Werfel’s epic portrays courage, endurance, and the moral urgency of confronting atrocity, cementing its place as both literature and testimony.
  3. An Armenian Sketchbook by Vasily Grossman

Vasily Grossman’s An Armenian Sketchbook is a short, intimate account of the two months he spent in Armenia after the Soviet regime “arrested” his masterpiece Life and Fate. Initially taking on the trip for work and money, Grossman found himself captivated by Armenia’s mountains, ancient churches, and people. Written with warmth and spontaneity, the book feels like a candid conversation with the author, blending travel impressions with personal reflection. More than a travelogue, it’s a self-portrait of a writer searching for meaning amid exile and change, offering readers a wonderfully human glimpse into both Armenia and Grossman himself.

4. The Burning Tigris by Peter Balakian

Peter Balakian’s The Burning Tigris is a national bestseller that offers a powerful narrative of the late 19th-century massacres of Armenians and the 1915 Armenian Genocide. Drawing on rare archival documents and eyewitness testimony, Balakian exposes how the Ottoman Turks carried out the first modern genocide under the cover of World War I. At the same time, he uncovers a forgotten chapter of American history, when ordinary citizens and leaders rallied to aid Armenian survivors, making this both a chilling history and a story of humanitarian response.

 

5. The Story of the Last Thought by Edgar Hilsenrath

Edgar Hilsenrath’s The Story of the Last Thought tells the tragic tale of an Armenian village destroyed during the 1915 Genocide, framed as the dying vision of Thovma Khatisian. Guided by the storyteller Meddah, Thovma’s final thought becomes a journey through his family’s history and the suffering of his people. Mixing historical fact with the style of an oriental fairy tale, Hilsenrath blends myth, memory, and meticulously researched detail. The result is both a cruel yet compassionate novel—one that mourns loss while affirming hope, and speaks to the plight of all genocide victims.

6. Passage to Ararat by Michael J. Arlen

Michael J. Arlen’s Passage to Ararat (winner of the National Book Award in 1976) is both a personal and historical exploration of Armenian identity. Seeking to understand what his famous Anglo-Armenian father had tried to forget, Arlen travels into Armenia’s past and present, confronting the legacy of genocide, exile, and survival. What emerges is a narrative as sweeping as a people’s history yet as intimate as a father–son relationship, blending cultural discovery with the painful and affirming truths of kinship and belonging.

 

If you like watching movies, here are some recommendations.

  1. Lost and Found in Armenia (2013)

Bill (Jamie Kennedy) is forced to take a vacation in Turkey after a bad breakup and a parasailing accident leave him stranded in a small Armenian village. He meets a young woman (Angela Sarafyan) there who helps him escape from his misfortunes.

2. The Pomise (2016)

The film tells the story of Michael (Oscar Isaac), a young Armenian who dreams of studying medicine. When he travels to Constantinople to study, he meets Armenian Ana (Charlotte Le Bon) and falls in love with her, although she dates the American photographer Chris (Christian Bale), sent to Turkey to record the first genocide of the 20th century when the Turks exterminated the Armenian minority. A love triangle settles amidst the horrors of war.

3. Amerikatsi (2022)

Armenian-American repatriate Charlie Bakhchinyan is arrested for the absurd crime of wearing a tie in Soviet Armenia. Alone in solitary confinement, he soon discovers that he can see inside of an apartment building near the prison from his cell window. By watching the native Armenian couple living in the apartment, day in and day out, Charlie soon discovers everything he returned to Armenia for.

Amerikatsi is about hope and the art of survival in the worst of conditions.

4. Between Borders (2024)

The incredible true story of an Armenian family forced to flee their home during the collapse of the Soviet Union, and embark on a journey to find a community to call their own.

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Israel’s Audacious Raid Near Damascus and What It Means for the Region

Israeli commando units, supported by helicopters and about 15 airstrikes, carried out a daring raid on a military base just five miles south of downtown Damascus. This was in a Damascus suburb, practically in the Syrian capital itself.

 Syrian soldiers stationed at a former military facility in the town of Aliswah. The strikes softened up the site and cut off nearby roads to delay reinforcements. Then Israeli commandos hit the ground for what’s called “sensitive site exploitation” — essentially gathering intelligence, dismantling surveillance devices, and recovering equipment of value.

Reports indicate those devices had been placed there by Turkey, possibly more than a decade ago, giving Ankara a window into Israel’s activities. Removing them was a clear message: Israel will not tolerate hostile eyes watching its borders.

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