Chuck Holton
Politics • Culture • News
Trump 2.0. Master Negotiator or Something Else?
Did Trump just throw Ukraine (and NATO) under the bus?
February 13, 2025
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Trump’s negotiating style has always been unconventional, but it does follow a certain logic—at least in his own strategic framework. His approach is a mix of hardball tactics, unpredictability, and personal relationships, but how he applies those elements can sometimes appear contradictory. Here’s a breakdown of how this could fit into his broader strategy:

1. The “Madman Theory” and Anchoring Tactics

Trump often uses extreme opening positions, as you noted, to anchor negotiations in his favor. The classic example is threatening 25% tariffs on Mexico to force them into border security agreements. This works when:

  • The other party fears the consequences.
  • He has leverage (i.e., Mexico's economic dependence on the U.S.).
  • He can later walk back the extreme position while still achieving his objectives.

2. Friends vs. Enemies: Why He Bullies Allies and Woos Dictators

This is where things get interesting. Trump has a pattern of being tough on allies (NATO, South Korea, Canada, Germany) and more accommodating with adversaries (Putin, Kim Jong-un, Xi Jinping). Why?

  • Transactional Worldview: Trump sees allies as entities that should "pay their fair share." He doesn't believe in historical alliances for their own sake, but rather as business arrangements where the U.S. should extract maximum benefit.
  • Respect for Strength, Not Institutions: Trump admires power and direct action more than international norms. Dictators like Putin and Kim Jong-un operate with raw authority, which he sees as a form of strength. He views democratic leaders as weaker because they are constrained by political processes and bureaucracy.
  • Disruptive Leverage: By attacking NATO, he pressures European nations to contribute more defense spending. However, this risks undermining alliances that give the U.S. strategic power in the long run.

3. The Putin Problem: A Negotiation Misfire?

Now, why does he seem to be giving away leverage when dealing with Putin? His current stance—suggesting Ukraine must cede territory before negotiations even begin—would typically be considered a weak opening move in a negotiation. Here are a few possible explanations:

  • “Keep Your Enemies Closer” Approach: Maybe Trump thinks that by flattering Putin and giving him early concessions, he can build a personal relationship that allows for a later deal.
  • Isolationist Instincts: Trump has long been skeptical of U.S. intervention abroad. He may genuinely believe Ukraine should give up land because he doesn’t see the conflict as an American priority.
  • Desire to End the War Quickly: If Trump’s primary goal is simply to end the war and "bring peace," he may not care how it happens—just that it does.
  • Misjudgment of Putin’s Position: Unlike Mexico or NATO, where Trump had leverage, Russia is already in a strong position militarily in Ukraine and may see Trump's approach as a sign of weakness rather than strength.

4. A Flawed Negotiator?

Trump’s methods are based on power, bluster, and personal relationships rather than strategic consistency. That means:

  • When he has leverage, he often wins (Mexico border policy, NATO defense spending increases).
  • When he lacks leverage, he sometimes makes premature concessions (North Korea summits with no real denuclearization, China trade deals that didn’t fundamentally shift the balance).
  • His personal affinity for strongmen can sometimes cloud his judgment. He may mistake friendly words from dictators for genuine respect or willingness to deal, when in reality, they are manipulating him.

Conclusion

Trump is a high-risk, high-reward negotiator, and his approach often depends on whether his tactics match the situation. In some cases (business deals, Mexico tariffs), his extreme positions yield results. In others (Putin, Kim Jong-un), his strategy appears more naive, giving away leverage in hopes of a personal breakthrough that may never come.

If he were truly playing the "Art of the Deal" approach with Russia, he would:

  • Threaten greater U.S. support for Ukraine to pressure Russia into negotiations.
  • Hold back on preemptive concessions like NATO membership restrictions.
  • Keep Putin guessing rather than openly suggesting a willingness to hand him part of Ukraine.

Instead, by leading with appeasement, he’s not anchoring high—he’s giving the other side confidence that they can take more. Whether this is strategic (keeping enemies close) or a fundamental misunderstanding of geopolitics is debatable.

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I read just now that YET AGAIN our president has cancelled the attacks in Iran because they want to "make a deal." G-d help us! At this point I don't know what to believe about President Trump. I find this behavior more and more disturbing by the day. Am I wrong? What am I missing? We are praying daily for wisdom and knowledge for him so I feel I must be missing something but it doesn't feel like that is the case.

“@wendybellradio Wendy Bell Radio on Locals, Jun 10, 2026:
“Pfizer Adverse Events Internal
Report, Here are all the Adverse Event they didnt want you to know about.” AND “DISQUALIFYING
Democrats get behind all the wrong people.
They embrace thugs and goons who do horrible things - who should be
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Luigi Mangione.
George Floyd.
James Talarico.
Karmelo Anthony.
Tren de Aragua.
Even Xavier Becerra.
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Becerra let that happen and scolded his staff for processing those children tast enough.
And democrats want him to be California's next governor?
Now they love Graham Platner.
Shouldn't a guy with as disturbing a back storv as Platner's be…”
https://wendybellradio.locals.com/upost/7991379/pfizer-adverse-events-internal-report
https://wendybellradio.locals.com/upost/7996113/disqualifying

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IT'S TREASON THEN!

Candace Owens says she traveled to Russia for a family vacation, but there's a lot more to this story than sightseeing and church visits. In this video, I break down her appearance at a major Kremlin-linked event, the reality of religious freedom in Russia, the role of the Russian Orthodox Church in supporting Putin's war effort, and why Moscow benefits when influential Americans promote Russia as a model Christian society. We'll separate fact from narrative and look at what is really happening behind the headlines.

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Trump Pushes Massive Middle East Deal

For months, the central question surrounding Iran has been whether the regime can withstand the economic and military pressure being applied by the United States and its allies.

This week, a different question emerged.

What if Iran is already getting what it wants?

President Trump continues to insist that Iran cannot be allowed to obtain a nuclear weapon. During a rare televised cabinet meeting, he pointed to Iran's economic collapse, soaring inflation, and internal instability as evidence that Tehran has little choice but to negotiate. According to Trump, Iran's leadership is feeling the pressure.

The problem is that pressure alone does not guarantee results.

Recent reports out of Iran claimed that negotiators were discussing a framework that would effectively grant Tehran greater influence over the Strait of Hormuz while postponing any serious discussion of its nuclear program. The White House has since dismissed those reports as false, but the episode exposed a growing concern among regional observers.

Negotiations appear to be moving slowly, while events on the ground continue moving in Iran's favor.

The Strait of Hormuz Changes Everything

At the center of the debate is the Strait of Hormuz.

Roughly one-fifth of the world's oil supply normally passes through this narrow waterway. Whoever controls access to it holds significant leverage over global energy markets.

Before the conflict escalated, Iran did not possess the level of influence over shipping traffic that it does today. Now, according to several military analysts, Tehran has demonstrated an ability to disrupt one of the world's most important commercial chokepoints.

That reality is shaping every negotiation.

Retired General Jack Keane warned that Iran views control of the Strait as a strategic prize and has little incentive to surrender that leverage voluntarily. Gulf Arab states are watching closely. Their economies depend on stable energy exports, and many are increasingly uncertain about how the current negotiations will end.

The longer uncertainty continues, the more regional governments may begin making their own accommodations with Tehran.

Military Force Has Limits

Former CENTCOM Commander General Joseph Votel offered another important perspective.

Military action can weaken Iran. It can destroy infrastructure, degrade capabilities, and impose costs. But military force alone is unlikely to produce a lasting solution.

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America Is Hunting Terrorists Again — And Iran May Be Next

While most Americans were grilling burgers, watching baseball, or trying not to think about geopolitics for five minutes, the United States quietly carried out a major counterterrorism operation in Nigeria—and at the same time, all signs point to President Trump preparing for another possible strike on Iran. Those two stories may seem unrelated.

They’re not. They tell us a lot about where American foreign policy is headed, how terrorism has evolved, and why the Middle East may be far from finished exploding.

If you missed the LIVE, you can watch it HERE

The U.S. Just Took Out One of the World’s Top Terror Leaders

President Trump announced that U.S. special operations forces, working alongside Nigerian forces, eliminated Abu Bal al-Minuki—the number two global leader of ISIS.

Or as I jokingly call them on YouTube so I don’t get demonetized: the “Black Pajama Boys.”

Now before you shrug this off as another headline from some faraway place most Americans can’t find on a map, understand what this means. ISIS never really disappeared. We destroyed their caliphate during the first Trump administration. We crushed their territorial control in Syria and Iraq. But the organization itself survived. The brand survived. And now the center of gravity for ISIS activity has shifted into Africa.

That’s where the war is.

Africa Is Becoming the New Terror Front

Most Americans still think of terrorism through the lens of Iraq and Afghanistan. That’s outdated thinking. Today, the majority of ISIS activity is concentrated across parts of Africa—especially Nigeria and the surrounding region. And the violence there is horrific. Last year alone, more than 3,600 Christians were murdered in Nigeria.

Three thousand six hundred people slaughtered largely because of their faith. Some of that violence comes from ISIS-linked groups. Much of it comes from radicalized Fulani militants who attack Christian villages, burn homes, seize farmland, and massacre civilians. I’ve been to Nigeria. I’ve seen the fear people live under there. And while the world’s media obsesses over American politics 24 hours a day, entire Christian communities are being erased in parts of Africa with barely a mention.

Why America Should Care

There’s a growing mindset in America that says:
“America First means America Only.”

I disagree. If we have the ability to stop terrorists before they spread globally, we should do it. Not because we’re the world’s babysitter. But because history shows that when terrorists are allowed to build safe havens overseas, eventually Americans die too. That’s not theory. That’s exactly what happened before 9/11. And ISIS has adapted. Instead of focusing solely on controlling territory, they’re now investing heavily in online radicalization.

They recruit lone wolves.
They inspire attacks remotely.
They spread propaganda globally.

That means the battlefield isn’t just Nigeria anymore. It’s your phone.

Iran Is Playing Games — And Trump Knows It

At the same time all this is happening, the Iran situation is getting more dangerous by the day. President Trump openly admitted that negotiations with Iran keep collapsing because Tehran repeatedly agrees to terms… and then pretends the conversation never happened. That’s because Iran was never negotiating in good faith to begin with. They’re stalling. Trying to preserve their nuclear capability while avoiding another American strike.

And meanwhile, the regime is preparing its own population for possible war. Iran reportedly sent text messages asking citizens whether they’d be willing to “martyr themselves for the regime.” Think about how insane that is. At the same time, Iranian state television has literally been airing AK-47 training sessions for civilians—although judging by the footage, some of these guys shouldn’t be trusted with a Nerf gun. One instructor accidentally fired a round through the ceiling of the studio during a live demonstration.

Funny? Sure. Also revealing. Because it tells you the regime is nervous.

The Strait of Hormuz Is the Real Red Line

A lot of people think this conflict is mainly about nuclear weapons. It’s not. The real issue is control of the Strait of Hormuz—the narrow waterway through which a huge percentage of the world’s oil flows. Iran wants control over it. The rest of the world cannot allow that. That’s why the U.S. still has major naval forces positioned in the region right now, even after the ceasefire. And according to multiple reports, additional military strikes could happen as soon as this week.

Here’s the Bigger Picture

What we’re watching right now is a transition. America appears to be moving back toward aggressive counterterrorism operations overseas while simultaneously preparing for the possibility of a larger regional conflict with Iran. And unlike the endless nation-building experiments of the past, these operations are increasingly:

  • precision-based,
  • intelligence-driven,
  • drone-supported,
  • and focused on eliminating threats before they metastasize.

That’s the future of warfare. But it also means the world is becoming more unstable—not less.

Final Thought

Here’s the reality nobody wants to admit:

The bad guys never stopped organizing.

ISIS adapted.
Iran stalled.
China maneuvered.
Russia escalated.
Terror groups spread into Africa.
And the world kept pretending everything was returning to normal.

It isn’t. The question isn’t whether America should engage with threats overseas. The question is whether we deal with them there… or wait until they show up here. Because history has already answered that question once. And it cost us thousands of lives.

Stay alert. Stay informed. And as always—keep your head on a swivel.

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