Chuck Holton
Politics • Culture • News
Trump 2.0. Master Negotiator or Something Else?
Did Trump just throw Ukraine (and NATO) under the bus?
February 13, 2025
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Trump’s negotiating style has always been unconventional, but it does follow a certain logic—at least in his own strategic framework. His approach is a mix of hardball tactics, unpredictability, and personal relationships, but how he applies those elements can sometimes appear contradictory. Here’s a breakdown of how this could fit into his broader strategy:

1. The “Madman Theory” and Anchoring Tactics

Trump often uses extreme opening positions, as you noted, to anchor negotiations in his favor. The classic example is threatening 25% tariffs on Mexico to force them into border security agreements. This works when:

  • The other party fears the consequences.
  • He has leverage (i.e., Mexico's economic dependence on the U.S.).
  • He can later walk back the extreme position while still achieving his objectives.

2. Friends vs. Enemies: Why He Bullies Allies and Woos Dictators

This is where things get interesting. Trump has a pattern of being tough on allies (NATO, South Korea, Canada, Germany) and more accommodating with adversaries (Putin, Kim Jong-un, Xi Jinping). Why?

  • Transactional Worldview: Trump sees allies as entities that should "pay their fair share." He doesn't believe in historical alliances for their own sake, but rather as business arrangements where the U.S. should extract maximum benefit.
  • Respect for Strength, Not Institutions: Trump admires power and direct action more than international norms. Dictators like Putin and Kim Jong-un operate with raw authority, which he sees as a form of strength. He views democratic leaders as weaker because they are constrained by political processes and bureaucracy.
  • Disruptive Leverage: By attacking NATO, he pressures European nations to contribute more defense spending. However, this risks undermining alliances that give the U.S. strategic power in the long run.

3. The Putin Problem: A Negotiation Misfire?

Now, why does he seem to be giving away leverage when dealing with Putin? His current stance—suggesting Ukraine must cede territory before negotiations even begin—would typically be considered a weak opening move in a negotiation. Here are a few possible explanations:

  • “Keep Your Enemies Closer” Approach: Maybe Trump thinks that by flattering Putin and giving him early concessions, he can build a personal relationship that allows for a later deal.
  • Isolationist Instincts: Trump has long been skeptical of U.S. intervention abroad. He may genuinely believe Ukraine should give up land because he doesn’t see the conflict as an American priority.
  • Desire to End the War Quickly: If Trump’s primary goal is simply to end the war and "bring peace," he may not care how it happens—just that it does.
  • Misjudgment of Putin’s Position: Unlike Mexico or NATO, where Trump had leverage, Russia is already in a strong position militarily in Ukraine and may see Trump's approach as a sign of weakness rather than strength.

4. A Flawed Negotiator?

Trump’s methods are based on power, bluster, and personal relationships rather than strategic consistency. That means:

  • When he has leverage, he often wins (Mexico border policy, NATO defense spending increases).
  • When he lacks leverage, he sometimes makes premature concessions (North Korea summits with no real denuclearization, China trade deals that didn’t fundamentally shift the balance).
  • His personal affinity for strongmen can sometimes cloud his judgment. He may mistake friendly words from dictators for genuine respect or willingness to deal, when in reality, they are manipulating him.

Conclusion

Trump is a high-risk, high-reward negotiator, and his approach often depends on whether his tactics match the situation. In some cases (business deals, Mexico tariffs), his extreme positions yield results. In others (Putin, Kim Jong-un), his strategy appears more naive, giving away leverage in hopes of a personal breakthrough that may never come.

If he were truly playing the "Art of the Deal" approach with Russia, he would:

  • Threaten greater U.S. support for Ukraine to pressure Russia into negotiations.
  • Hold back on preemptive concessions like NATO membership restrictions.
  • Keep Putin guessing rather than openly suggesting a willingness to hand him part of Ukraine.

Instead, by leading with appeasement, he’s not anchoring high—he’s giving the other side confidence that they can take more. Whether this is strategic (keeping enemies close) or a fundamental misunderstanding of geopolitics is debatable.

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Why doesn't the US just wipeout the speed boats docked on shore or when they begin their attacks?

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America Is Hunting Terrorists Again — And Iran May Be Next

While most Americans were grilling burgers, watching baseball, or trying not to think about geopolitics for five minutes, the United States quietly carried out a major counterterrorism operation in Nigeria—and at the same time, all signs point to President Trump preparing for another possible strike on Iran. Those two stories may seem unrelated.

They’re not. They tell us a lot about where American foreign policy is headed, how terrorism has evolved, and why the Middle East may be far from finished exploding.

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The U.S. Just Took Out One of the World’s Top Terror Leaders

President Trump announced that U.S. special operations forces, working alongside Nigerian forces, eliminated Abu Bal al-Minuki—the number two global leader of ISIS.

Or as I jokingly call them on YouTube so I don’t get demonetized: the “Black Pajama Boys.”

Now before you shrug this off as another headline from some faraway place most Americans can’t find on a map, understand what this means. ISIS never really disappeared. We destroyed their caliphate during the first Trump administration. We crushed their territorial control in Syria and Iraq. But the organization itself survived. The brand survived. And now the center of gravity for ISIS activity has shifted into Africa.

That’s where the war is.

Africa Is Becoming the New Terror Front

Most Americans still think of terrorism through the lens of Iraq and Afghanistan. That’s outdated thinking. Today, the majority of ISIS activity is concentrated across parts of Africa—especially Nigeria and the surrounding region. And the violence there is horrific. Last year alone, more than 3,600 Christians were murdered in Nigeria.

Three thousand six hundred people slaughtered largely because of their faith. Some of that violence comes from ISIS-linked groups. Much of it comes from radicalized Fulani militants who attack Christian villages, burn homes, seize farmland, and massacre civilians. I’ve been to Nigeria. I’ve seen the fear people live under there. And while the world’s media obsesses over American politics 24 hours a day, entire Christian communities are being erased in parts of Africa with barely a mention.

Why America Should Care

There’s a growing mindset in America that says:
“America First means America Only.”

I disagree. If we have the ability to stop terrorists before they spread globally, we should do it. Not because we’re the world’s babysitter. But because history shows that when terrorists are allowed to build safe havens overseas, eventually Americans die too. That’s not theory. That’s exactly what happened before 9/11. And ISIS has adapted. Instead of focusing solely on controlling territory, they’re now investing heavily in online radicalization.

They recruit lone wolves.
They inspire attacks remotely.
They spread propaganda globally.

That means the battlefield isn’t just Nigeria anymore. It’s your phone.

Iran Is Playing Games — And Trump Knows It

At the same time all this is happening, the Iran situation is getting more dangerous by the day. President Trump openly admitted that negotiations with Iran keep collapsing because Tehran repeatedly agrees to terms… and then pretends the conversation never happened. That’s because Iran was never negotiating in good faith to begin with. They’re stalling. Trying to preserve their nuclear capability while avoiding another American strike.

And meanwhile, the regime is preparing its own population for possible war. Iran reportedly sent text messages asking citizens whether they’d be willing to “martyr themselves for the regime.” Think about how insane that is. At the same time, Iranian state television has literally been airing AK-47 training sessions for civilians—although judging by the footage, some of these guys shouldn’t be trusted with a Nerf gun. One instructor accidentally fired a round through the ceiling of the studio during a live demonstration.

Funny? Sure. Also revealing. Because it tells you the regime is nervous.

The Strait of Hormuz Is the Real Red Line

A lot of people think this conflict is mainly about nuclear weapons. It’s not. The real issue is control of the Strait of Hormuz—the narrow waterway through which a huge percentage of the world’s oil flows. Iran wants control over it. The rest of the world cannot allow that. That’s why the U.S. still has major naval forces positioned in the region right now, even after the ceasefire. And according to multiple reports, additional military strikes could happen as soon as this week.

Here’s the Bigger Picture

What we’re watching right now is a transition. America appears to be moving back toward aggressive counterterrorism operations overseas while simultaneously preparing for the possibility of a larger regional conflict with Iran. And unlike the endless nation-building experiments of the past, these operations are increasingly:

  • precision-based,
  • intelligence-driven,
  • drone-supported,
  • and focused on eliminating threats before they metastasize.

That’s the future of warfare. But it also means the world is becoming more unstable—not less.

Final Thought

Here’s the reality nobody wants to admit:

The bad guys never stopped organizing.

ISIS adapted.
Iran stalled.
China maneuvered.
Russia escalated.
Terror groups spread into Africa.
And the world kept pretending everything was returning to normal.

It isn’t. The question isn’t whether America should engage with threats overseas. The question is whether we deal with them there… or wait until they show up here. Because history has already answered that question once. And it cost us thousands of lives.

Stay alert. Stay informed. And as always—keep your head on a swivel.

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Russia’s War on Civilians—and What It Tells Us About the Future of Warfare

I don’t talk about Ukraine as much as I used to. Not because it’s not important—but because a lot of people have tuned it out. It’s been going on long enough that it’s faded into the background noise for most Americans. That’s a mistake. Because what’s happening in Ukraine right now is a preview of the future of warfare—and it has direct implications for U.S. national security.

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A War on Civilians, Not Soldiers

Russia just launched one of the largest aerial assaults of the entire war—over 1,500 drones and missiles in about a 30-hour period.

Think about that for a second. Thirty straight hours of air raid sirens. Explosions. Families hiding in basements. Kids wondering if their apartment building is next. And here’s the part that matters most: these weren’t primarily military targets. Russia is targeting civilians—apartment buildings, infrastructure, everyday people. That’s not accidental. It’s intentional. It’s terrorism as strategy.

I’ve stood in the rubble of those buildings. I’ve seen what’s left behind. One image that still sticks with me is a little girl’s pet turtle—blown out of an apartment after a missile strike, painted toenails and all. They never found the girl. That’s what this war looks like on the ground.

Ukraine Fights a Different Kind of War

Now contrast that with how Ukraine is fighting. While Russia is hitting civilians, Ukraine is targeting oil refineries, aircraft, radar systems—military infrastructure that actually affects the war effort. That difference matters. Ukraine isn’t trying to terrorize the Russian population. They’re trying to degrade Russia’s ability to wage war. That’s the difference between a military campaign and a campaign of intimidation. And it’s one of the reasons Ukrainian morale is holding strong—even under constant attack.

The Drone War Has Changed Everything

If you want to understand where warfare is heading, don’t look at tanks. Look at drones. Ukraine is now operating at a level that frankly should concern every military planner in the United States. They’ve figured out how to:

  • Launch drones remotely from hidden platforms
  • Fly them from anywhere in the world
  • Strike deep inside enemy territory
  • Automate large portions of the battlefield

We’re talking about unmanned ground vehicles evacuating wounded soldiers. Armed robotic systems holding defensive positions. Drone boats launching missiles and aerial drones from the sea. At one point, a single unmanned ground vehicle reportedly held off a Russian unit for over a month.

And here’s the uncomfortable truth: the United States is behind in this area. We’re now sending personnel to learn from the Ukrainians.

Russia Is Bleeding Itself Out

Despite the massive attacks, Russia is not winning this war. They’re losing soldiers at a staggering rate—far faster than they can replace them. And that matters long-term. Wars aren’t just about territory. They’re about demographics, economics, and sustainability. Russia is burning through its future—its young men, its workforce, its ability to project power decades from now. Meanwhile, Ukraine is fighting like a country that knows it has no choice. Because for Ukraine, this isn’t a war of choice. It’s an existential fight. If they lose, their country ceases to exist.

Propaganda Is a Battlefield Too

Another piece of this war that doesn’t get enough attention is information warfare. There’s a massive amount of Russian propaganda circulating—especially on social media—trying to paint Ukraine as the aggressor or muddy the waters about what’s actually happening. But the basic facts haven’t changed:

Russia invaded Ukraine.
Ukraine didn’t invade Russia.

Everything else spins out from that reality.

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You might be thinking, “Okay, but why should I care?”

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The Illusion of Control in a War That’s Anything But Controlled

When you spend enough time around conflict—real conflict, not the sanitized version filtered through headlines—you begin to recognize a pattern that most people miss.

At the beginning of almost every war, there is a moment when one side appears to be in control. The strikes are precise, the objectives are clear, and the narrative is simple enough for public consumption. It looks organized. It looks deliberate. It looks like someone, somewhere, has a plan. But that moment never lasts. And what we are seeing right now is the beginning of that shift.

What Looks Stable… Usually Isn’t

From a distance, the situation appears manageable. Military assets are being deployed with precision, targets are being hit, and responses are being measured—at least on the surface. But stability in war is often an illusion. Because what you’re really looking at is not control—it’s timing. Timing between actions. Timing between responses. Timing between decisions that haven’t yet been made. And once that timing breaks down, everything changes. That’s when a conflict stops being predictable and starts becoming dangerous in ways that no one can fully control.

The Problem With Modern Warfare

One of the biggest misconceptions people have about modern conflict is that technological superiority guarantees a clean outcome. It doesn’t. What it does is create the appearance of control. Precision weapons, intelligence gathering, satellite surveillance—all of these tools allow a military to operate with incredible effectiveness in the early stages. But they do not eliminate uncertainty. In many ways, they simply push it further down the timeline. Because war is not just about destroying targets. It’s about influencing behavior. And behavior is far harder to predict than infrastructure.

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