Chuck Holton
Politics • Culture • News
Why Ceasefires Rarely End Wars
March 18, 2025

Israel is back in Gaza with over 40 strikes against Hamas targets, the U.S. is hitting the Houthis in Yemen, and Israel is striking in Lebanon and Syria. That’s a lot of conflict in one day.

But here’s what I want to talk about: ceasefires. Specifically, why they rarely lead to the end of a war.

Ceasefires Don’t End Conflicts—Winning Does

A ceasefire sounds nice in theory. Two sides stop shooting, people get a break from the violence, and maybe, just maybe, they find a way to peace. But in reality, that’s not how wars end. Wars end when one side wins.

The idea that two reasonable parties will sit down and negotiate peace assumes that both sides are rational. But real, wars don’t start because people are reasonable. If they were, they wouldn’t have gone to war in the first place.

Take Russia and Ukraine. Russia didn’t just wake up one day and say, “Let’s have a friendly discussion.” No, they built up 250,000 troops on Ukraine’s border and then invaded. They claimed all sorts of reasons—some of which had a strategic basis—but none of which were moral, rational, or justified.

Trump, Putin, and a Pointless Phone Call

Recently, former President Trump had a call with Vladimir Putin about a ceasefire in Ukraine. It didn’t go well. Putin left Trump on hold (a power move) and later made demands that no one in the West could accept.

The Kremlin’s version of the call was very different from the U.S. version. Putin didn’t agree to a ceasefire. Instead, he said he might consider stopping attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure—but only if the West stopped all weapons shipments to Ukraine. In other words, Russia would stop targeting power plants if Ukraine essentially surrendered. That’s not a negotiation. That’s blackmail.

Russia’s Long History of Breaking Ceasefires

Let’s talk history. Russia has agreed to multiple ceasefires with Ukraine over the years. How many have lasted? Zero.

Here’s a quick rundown:

  • 2014 Minsk Agreement – Broken almost immediately.

  • 2015 Minsk II Agreement – Also broken.

  • 2016 Ceasefires (Harvest, Easter, School-Year, Christmas) – Every single one was violated.

  • 2019 Steinmeyer Formula Ceasefire – Lasted longer but still collapsed.

  • 2020 Nationwide Ceasefire – This one worked for a while, but guess what? Russia used the time to build up forces before launching its full-scale invasion in 2022.

See a pattern? Russia doesn’t want a ceasefire—they want a chance to regroup and attack again later.

The Reality: Either Ukraine Wins or Russia Wins

This war doesn’t end with a handshake. There are only two possible outcomes:

  1. Ukraine loses. That means 30 million people live under Russian oppression, and Russia moves on to its next target—maybe Poland or even Belarus.

  2. Russia loses. And they learn a hard lesson that aggression doesn’t pay.

Right now, Russia is struggling. Ukraine is hitting Russian energy infrastructure hard, and it’s making a big impact. That’s why Putin suddenly wants to negotiate—but only on his terms.

What Should Happen Instead?

Instead of pushing for a doomed ceasefire, the U.S. should take the same stance on Ukraine that it takes on Israel: full support until victory is achieved.

If Trump really wants to make an impact, he should be telling Putin:

“We will never allow NATO to attack Russia, but we also won’t allow Russia to take territory that isn’t theirs. Until Russian troops leave Ukraine, we will use every economic tool available to collapse your war machine.”

That’s the only language Putin understands. Anything less just delays the inevitable.

Final Thoughts

Ceasefires sound good on paper, but history shows they rarely work. When dealing with aggressive, expansionist regimes like Russia, stopping the fight only gives them time to regroup and attack again later. The only way to end this war is for Ukraine to win—and the U.S. should be doing everything it can to make sure that happens.

Let me know what you think in the comments!

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America Is Hunting Terrorists Again — And Iran May Be Next

While most Americans were grilling burgers, watching baseball, or trying not to think about geopolitics for five minutes, the United States quietly carried out a major counterterrorism operation in Nigeria—and at the same time, all signs point to President Trump preparing for another possible strike on Iran. Those two stories may seem unrelated.

They’re not. They tell us a lot about where American foreign policy is headed, how terrorism has evolved, and why the Middle East may be far from finished exploding.

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The U.S. Just Took Out One of the World’s Top Terror Leaders

President Trump announced that U.S. special operations forces, working alongside Nigerian forces, eliminated Abu Bal al-Minuki—the number two global leader of ISIS.

Or as I jokingly call them on YouTube so I don’t get demonetized: the “Black Pajama Boys.”

Now before you shrug this off as another headline from some faraway place most Americans can’t find on a map, understand what this means. ISIS never really disappeared. We destroyed their caliphate during the first Trump administration. We crushed their territorial control in Syria and Iraq. But the organization itself survived. The brand survived. And now the center of gravity for ISIS activity has shifted into Africa.

That’s where the war is.

Africa Is Becoming the New Terror Front

Most Americans still think of terrorism through the lens of Iraq and Afghanistan. That’s outdated thinking. Today, the majority of ISIS activity is concentrated across parts of Africa—especially Nigeria and the surrounding region. And the violence there is horrific. Last year alone, more than 3,600 Christians were murdered in Nigeria.

Three thousand six hundred people slaughtered largely because of their faith. Some of that violence comes from ISIS-linked groups. Much of it comes from radicalized Fulani militants who attack Christian villages, burn homes, seize farmland, and massacre civilians. I’ve been to Nigeria. I’ve seen the fear people live under there. And while the world’s media obsesses over American politics 24 hours a day, entire Christian communities are being erased in parts of Africa with barely a mention.

Why America Should Care

There’s a growing mindset in America that says:
“America First means America Only.”

I disagree. If we have the ability to stop terrorists before they spread globally, we should do it. Not because we’re the world’s babysitter. But because history shows that when terrorists are allowed to build safe havens overseas, eventually Americans die too. That’s not theory. That’s exactly what happened before 9/11. And ISIS has adapted. Instead of focusing solely on controlling territory, they’re now investing heavily in online radicalization.

They recruit lone wolves.
They inspire attacks remotely.
They spread propaganda globally.

That means the battlefield isn’t just Nigeria anymore. It’s your phone.

Iran Is Playing Games — And Trump Knows It

At the same time all this is happening, the Iran situation is getting more dangerous by the day. President Trump openly admitted that negotiations with Iran keep collapsing because Tehran repeatedly agrees to terms… and then pretends the conversation never happened. That’s because Iran was never negotiating in good faith to begin with. They’re stalling. Trying to preserve their nuclear capability while avoiding another American strike.

And meanwhile, the regime is preparing its own population for possible war. Iran reportedly sent text messages asking citizens whether they’d be willing to “martyr themselves for the regime.” Think about how insane that is. At the same time, Iranian state television has literally been airing AK-47 training sessions for civilians—although judging by the footage, some of these guys shouldn’t be trusted with a Nerf gun. One instructor accidentally fired a round through the ceiling of the studio during a live demonstration.

Funny? Sure. Also revealing. Because it tells you the regime is nervous.

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A lot of people think this conflict is mainly about nuclear weapons. It’s not. The real issue is control of the Strait of Hormuz—the narrow waterway through which a huge percentage of the world’s oil flows. Iran wants control over it. The rest of the world cannot allow that. That’s why the U.S. still has major naval forces positioned in the region right now, even after the ceasefire. And according to multiple reports, additional military strikes could happen as soon as this week.

Here’s the Bigger Picture

What we’re watching right now is a transition. America appears to be moving back toward aggressive counterterrorism operations overseas while simultaneously preparing for the possibility of a larger regional conflict with Iran. And unlike the endless nation-building experiments of the past, these operations are increasingly:

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  • and focused on eliminating threats before they metastasize.

That’s the future of warfare. But it also means the world is becoming more unstable—not less.

Final Thought

Here’s the reality nobody wants to admit:

The bad guys never stopped organizing.

ISIS adapted.
Iran stalled.
China maneuvered.
Russia escalated.
Terror groups spread into Africa.
And the world kept pretending everything was returning to normal.

It isn’t. The question isn’t whether America should engage with threats overseas. The question is whether we deal with them there… or wait until they show up here. Because history has already answered that question once. And it cost us thousands of lives.

Stay alert. Stay informed. And as always—keep your head on a swivel.

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Russia’s War on Civilians—and What It Tells Us About the Future of Warfare

I don’t talk about Ukraine as much as I used to. Not because it’s not important—but because a lot of people have tuned it out. It’s been going on long enough that it’s faded into the background noise for most Americans. That’s a mistake. Because what’s happening in Ukraine right now is a preview of the future of warfare—and it has direct implications for U.S. national security.

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A War on Civilians, Not Soldiers

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I’ve stood in the rubble of those buildings. I’ve seen what’s left behind. One image that still sticks with me is a little girl’s pet turtle—blown out of an apartment after a missile strike, painted toenails and all. They never found the girl. That’s what this war looks like on the ground.

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Now contrast that with how Ukraine is fighting. While Russia is hitting civilians, Ukraine is targeting oil refineries, aircraft, radar systems—military infrastructure that actually affects the war effort. That difference matters. Ukraine isn’t trying to terrorize the Russian population. They’re trying to degrade Russia’s ability to wage war. That’s the difference between a military campaign and a campaign of intimidation. And it’s one of the reasons Ukrainian morale is holding strong—even under constant attack.

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If you want to understand where warfare is heading, don’t look at tanks. Look at drones. Ukraine is now operating at a level that frankly should concern every military planner in the United States. They’ve figured out how to:

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We’re talking about unmanned ground vehicles evacuating wounded soldiers. Armed robotic systems holding defensive positions. Drone boats launching missiles and aerial drones from the sea. At one point, a single unmanned ground vehicle reportedly held off a Russian unit for over a month.

And here’s the uncomfortable truth: the United States is behind in this area. We’re now sending personnel to learn from the Ukrainians.

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Despite the massive attacks, Russia is not winning this war. They’re losing soldiers at a staggering rate—far faster than they can replace them. And that matters long-term. Wars aren’t just about territory. They’re about demographics, economics, and sustainability. Russia is burning through its future—its young men, its workforce, its ability to project power decades from now. Meanwhile, Ukraine is fighting like a country that knows it has no choice. Because for Ukraine, this isn’t a war of choice. It’s an existential fight. If they lose, their country ceases to exist.

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Another piece of this war that doesn’t get enough attention is information warfare. There’s a massive amount of Russian propaganda circulating—especially on social media—trying to paint Ukraine as the aggressor or muddy the waters about what’s actually happening. But the basic facts haven’t changed:

Russia invaded Ukraine.
Ukraine didn’t invade Russia.

Everything else spins out from that reality.

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You might be thinking, “Okay, but why should I care?”

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The Illusion of Control in a War That’s Anything But Controlled

When you spend enough time around conflict—real conflict, not the sanitized version filtered through headlines—you begin to recognize a pattern that most people miss.

At the beginning of almost every war, there is a moment when one side appears to be in control. The strikes are precise, the objectives are clear, and the narrative is simple enough for public consumption. It looks organized. It looks deliberate. It looks like someone, somewhere, has a plan. But that moment never lasts. And what we are seeing right now is the beginning of that shift.

What Looks Stable… Usually Isn’t

From a distance, the situation appears manageable. Military assets are being deployed with precision, targets are being hit, and responses are being measured—at least on the surface. But stability in war is often an illusion. Because what you’re really looking at is not control—it’s timing. Timing between actions. Timing between responses. Timing between decisions that haven’t yet been made. And once that timing breaks down, everything changes. That’s when a conflict stops being predictable and starts becoming dangerous in ways that no one can fully control.

The Problem With Modern Warfare

One of the biggest misconceptions people have about modern conflict is that technological superiority guarantees a clean outcome. It doesn’t. What it does is create the appearance of control. Precision weapons, intelligence gathering, satellite surveillance—all of these tools allow a military to operate with incredible effectiveness in the early stages. But they do not eliminate uncertainty. In many ways, they simply push it further down the timeline. Because war is not just about destroying targets. It’s about influencing behavior. And behavior is far harder to predict than infrastructure.

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