Published: June 1, 2025
By: Chuck Holton

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In what may prove to be one of the most significant single blows to Russian airpower since the start of the war, Ukraine has reportedly launched a surprise drone strike that damaged or destroyed more than 40 Russian military aircraft—many of them nuclear-capable strategic bombers.

According to Ukrainian officials, the multi-pronged drone assault hit several airbases deep within Russian territory, including Engels and Mozdok—home to the Tu-95MS “Bear” and Tu-22M3 “Backfire” bombers. These platforms form a major part of Russia’s airborne nuclear triad. If the numbers are accurate, nearly 60% of Russia’s strategic bomber force may have been rendered inoperable overnight.

Let that sink in.

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A Devastating Blow to Strategic Deterrence?

Russia’s long-range bomber fleet has always been one of its most visible symbols of power. The Tu-95, a Cold War-era workhorse, and the Tu-160 “Blackjack”, its modern supersonic counterpart, are both capable of launching nuclear cruise missiles from thousands of miles away. While the Tu-160 fleet is smaller—only about 13 aircraft—the bulk of Russia’s deterrent bombers are the 55 or so Tu-95s in service.

Additionally, there are roughly 27 Tu-22M3s that play both tactical and strategic roles. These were also reportedly targeted in the strikes.

If Ukraine’s claim that 40 aircraft were damaged or destroyed holds true, that’s a crippling hit to Russia’s long-range nuclear delivery capability.

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How Did Ukraine Pull This Off?

This wasn’t a fluke. This was a coordinated, high-tech assault—likely involving long-range drones launched from both inside and outside Russia. Ukrainian sources have hinted that some drones may have launched from mobile platforms inside Russian territory, underscoring Ukraine’s growing sophistication in asymmetric warfare.

The attacks appear to have caught Russian air defense units off guard, raising serious questions about Russia’s internal security and the vulnerability of its critical military infrastructure.

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The Geopolitical Fallout

This strike doesn’t just represent a tactical win—it’s a psychological and strategic victory. Russia’s nuclear triad depends on the credibility of all three legs: land-based missiles, submarine-launched missiles, and air-delivered weapons. Severely degrading one of those legs changes the strategic balance—at least temporarily.

Will this embolden NATO? Will it force Moscow to accelerate its reliance on missile or submarine deterrence? Or does it push Putin closer to the brink, where desperation could make him more dangerous?

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What Happens Next?

Russia has yet to confirm the full extent of the damage, and it’s unlikely they ever will. But satellite imagery and independent assessments will emerge soon enough. Meanwhile, Ukraine has demonstrated a game-changing capability: the ability to reach far into the heart of Russia and target some of its most valuable military assets.

In a war where drones have already shifted the balance on the battlefield, this latest strike may be the biggest shift yet—not just in hardware, but in psychological dominance.

We’re watching history unfold.

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