Chuck Holton
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Are We Really “Going to War” with Venezuela? What the Headlines Get Wrong
October 04, 2025
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 A British tabloid blared that the U.S. is gearing up to seize ports and airfields in Venezuela. That makes for spicy clicks—but it doesn’t match the legal language, the logistics, or the real-world indicators. I’ve trained and served on teams that actually seize airfields. If that were in the works, we’d see unmistakable prep. We’re not seeing it. The bigger near-term risk? Continued strikes on drug-running assets—and a much higher likelihood of U.S.-Israeli coordination against Iran.

 

 

Trump’s Ultimatum to Hamas: Same Script, New Deadline

On Truth Social, President Trump warned Hamas to accept a peace deal by Sunday 6:00 p.m. (Washington, DC) or “all hell… will break out.” I’d love a deal, but I’m skeptical. The decision-makers in Hamas profit from perpetual war. We’ve heard “hell will break loose” before—with little U.S. follow-through beyond letting Israel keep doing what it’s been doing.

 

Greta’s “Selfie Flotilla” Wasn’t Humanitarian (Because There Was No Aid)

The IDF intercepted the flotilla that tried to enter Gazan waters handed out sandwiches, detained folks—including Greta Thunberg—and prepared deportations. The boats reportedly carried party drugs but no relief supplies. If you’ve seen real abductions from October 7th, you know the difference. This was performance activism that burned ~$500,000—money that could have fed tens of thousands for a month—on a PR stunt.

Activism that helps cameras instead of people is vanity, not virtue.

 

“Going to War” with Venezuela? Let’s Bayonet the Balloon

A tabloid headline shouted: “US military preparing to seize ports and airfields in Venezuela.” Here’s the sober cut:

  • Legal framing ≠ full war. The administration’s memo to Congress described a “non-international armed conflict” with cartels. That’s a legal term of art, not a declaration of war.

  • Seizing ports/airfields is loud. I served in the 75th Ranger Regiment (’87–’91) and jumped onto airfields. If we were truly prepping that, you’d see pre-positioned logistics, NOTAMs/NAVWARNs, air tasking changes, and a big footprint that’s hard to hide. We don’t see it.

  • Panama 1989 vs. Venezuela today. In Operation Just Cause, we invaded a country of ~2.5M with tens of thousands of troops, serious air and armor, and weeks of dedicated training. Venezuela is ~40M. Taking and holding ground there would be exponentially more complex.

What Venezuela does have

Open-source clips show Soviet-era anti-ship missiles (likely P-15 Termit/“Styx” class) moving around. They’re old, loud on radar, and easier to jam/decoy than modern systems—but in mass they can task-saturate defenses. U.S. carrier groups layer Aegis/SM-2/ESSM/CIWS and countermeasures for precisely this threat. It’s manageable—but not trivial.

The realistic playbook

  • High: More maritime interdictions of cartel “fishing boats” and smugglers off Venezuela.

  • Medium: Limited strikes on drug labs/trans-shipment sites ashore if intelligence is solid.

  • Low: A ground invasion to seize ports/airfields. That would also nuke any dreams of a Nobel and hand Moscow/Tehran a propaganda win.

 

Why This Matters Beyond Caracas

Russia, Iran, and China would love to see America bogged down in South America—anything to dilute our attention from Ukraine and the Middle East. My read: A U.S.-Israeli strike package against Iran is more likely in the near term than Marines storming Venezuelan ports. Also notable: a sizable cluster of aerial refueling assets has been spotted in the Mediterranean—fuel follows intent.

 

Mailbag Highlights (from the live Q&A)

  • “Is Venezuela as bad as Panama in ’89?” In several ways, worse—economically and institutionally.

  • “Would Brazil get involved?” Brazil’s posture is about blocking Venezuelan access to Guyana, not joining a U.S.-Venezuela fight.

  • “Could spec ops take out Maduro?” Possible in theory; risky in practice. He’s ring-fenced by Cuban and Wagner security. Risk of Russian casualties = geopolitical blowback.

  • “Cyberattacks if Europe ‘kicks off’?” Already happening daily; they’d intensify.

  • “Government shutdown hurting troops?” Politicians won’t tolerate troops missing pay; “essential services” keep running. The bigger question is what bloated government shouldn’t be doing in the first place.

 

The Rangers taught us to become extremely good at one thing: violence on command—under control. Seizing airfields meant learning everything from hot-wiring bulldozers to clearing runways to keeping a tight grip on self-discipline off-duty. That discipline still frames how I assess headlines today: verify the logistics, not the rhetoric.

 

What to Watch Next

  • Maritime interdictions off Venezuela (numbers, frequency, and targets)

  • Movement and basing of U.S. tankers/long-range strike aircraft

  • Israeli readiness indicators; U.S.-Israel joint signaling toward Iran

  • Venezuelan regime messaging and missile dispersal along the coast

If you missed the LIVE, you can watch it HERE

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Trump Pushes Massive Middle East Deal

For months, the central question surrounding Iran has been whether the regime can withstand the economic and military pressure being applied by the United States and its allies.

This week, a different question emerged.

What if Iran is already getting what it wants?

President Trump continues to insist that Iran cannot be allowed to obtain a nuclear weapon. During a rare televised cabinet meeting, he pointed to Iran's economic collapse, soaring inflation, and internal instability as evidence that Tehran has little choice but to negotiate. According to Trump, Iran's leadership is feeling the pressure.

The problem is that pressure alone does not guarantee results.

Recent reports out of Iran claimed that negotiators were discussing a framework that would effectively grant Tehran greater influence over the Strait of Hormuz while postponing any serious discussion of its nuclear program. The White House has since dismissed those reports as false, but the episode exposed a growing concern among regional observers.

Negotiations appear to be moving slowly, while events on the ground continue moving in Iran's favor.

The Strait of Hormuz Changes Everything

At the center of the debate is the Strait of Hormuz.

Roughly one-fifth of the world's oil supply normally passes through this narrow waterway. Whoever controls access to it holds significant leverage over global energy markets.

Before the conflict escalated, Iran did not possess the level of influence over shipping traffic that it does today. Now, according to several military analysts, Tehran has demonstrated an ability to disrupt one of the world's most important commercial chokepoints.

That reality is shaping every negotiation.

Retired General Jack Keane warned that Iran views control of the Strait as a strategic prize and has little incentive to surrender that leverage voluntarily. Gulf Arab states are watching closely. Their economies depend on stable energy exports, and many are increasingly uncertain about how the current negotiations will end.

The longer uncertainty continues, the more regional governments may begin making their own accommodations with Tehran.

Military Force Has Limits

Former CENTCOM Commander General Joseph Votel offered another important perspective.

Military action can weaken Iran. It can destroy infrastructure, degrade capabilities, and impose costs. But military force alone is unlikely to produce a lasting solution.

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America Is Hunting Terrorists Again — And Iran May Be Next

While most Americans were grilling burgers, watching baseball, or trying not to think about geopolitics for five minutes, the United States quietly carried out a major counterterrorism operation in Nigeria—and at the same time, all signs point to President Trump preparing for another possible strike on Iran. Those two stories may seem unrelated.

They’re not. They tell us a lot about where American foreign policy is headed, how terrorism has evolved, and why the Middle East may be far from finished exploding.

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The U.S. Just Took Out One of the World’s Top Terror Leaders

President Trump announced that U.S. special operations forces, working alongside Nigerian forces, eliminated Abu Bal al-Minuki—the number two global leader of ISIS.

Or as I jokingly call them on YouTube so I don’t get demonetized: the “Black Pajama Boys.”

Now before you shrug this off as another headline from some faraway place most Americans can’t find on a map, understand what this means. ISIS never really disappeared. We destroyed their caliphate during the first Trump administration. We crushed their territorial control in Syria and Iraq. But the organization itself survived. The brand survived. And now the center of gravity for ISIS activity has shifted into Africa.

That’s where the war is.

Africa Is Becoming the New Terror Front

Most Americans still think of terrorism through the lens of Iraq and Afghanistan. That’s outdated thinking. Today, the majority of ISIS activity is concentrated across parts of Africa—especially Nigeria and the surrounding region. And the violence there is horrific. Last year alone, more than 3,600 Christians were murdered in Nigeria.

Three thousand six hundred people slaughtered largely because of their faith. Some of that violence comes from ISIS-linked groups. Much of it comes from radicalized Fulani militants who attack Christian villages, burn homes, seize farmland, and massacre civilians. I’ve been to Nigeria. I’ve seen the fear people live under there. And while the world’s media obsesses over American politics 24 hours a day, entire Christian communities are being erased in parts of Africa with barely a mention.

Why America Should Care

There’s a growing mindset in America that says:
“America First means America Only.”

I disagree. If we have the ability to stop terrorists before they spread globally, we should do it. Not because we’re the world’s babysitter. But because history shows that when terrorists are allowed to build safe havens overseas, eventually Americans die too. That’s not theory. That’s exactly what happened before 9/11. And ISIS has adapted. Instead of focusing solely on controlling territory, they’re now investing heavily in online radicalization.

They recruit lone wolves.
They inspire attacks remotely.
They spread propaganda globally.

That means the battlefield isn’t just Nigeria anymore. It’s your phone.

Iran Is Playing Games — And Trump Knows It

At the same time all this is happening, the Iran situation is getting more dangerous by the day. President Trump openly admitted that negotiations with Iran keep collapsing because Tehran repeatedly agrees to terms… and then pretends the conversation never happened. That’s because Iran was never negotiating in good faith to begin with. They’re stalling. Trying to preserve their nuclear capability while avoiding another American strike.

And meanwhile, the regime is preparing its own population for possible war. Iran reportedly sent text messages asking citizens whether they’d be willing to “martyr themselves for the regime.” Think about how insane that is. At the same time, Iranian state television has literally been airing AK-47 training sessions for civilians—although judging by the footage, some of these guys shouldn’t be trusted with a Nerf gun. One instructor accidentally fired a round through the ceiling of the studio during a live demonstration.

Funny? Sure. Also revealing. Because it tells you the regime is nervous.

The Strait of Hormuz Is the Real Red Line

A lot of people think this conflict is mainly about nuclear weapons. It’s not. The real issue is control of the Strait of Hormuz—the narrow waterway through which a huge percentage of the world’s oil flows. Iran wants control over it. The rest of the world cannot allow that. That’s why the U.S. still has major naval forces positioned in the region right now, even after the ceasefire. And according to multiple reports, additional military strikes could happen as soon as this week.

Here’s the Bigger Picture

What we’re watching right now is a transition. America appears to be moving back toward aggressive counterterrorism operations overseas while simultaneously preparing for the possibility of a larger regional conflict with Iran. And unlike the endless nation-building experiments of the past, these operations are increasingly:

  • precision-based,
  • intelligence-driven,
  • drone-supported,
  • and focused on eliminating threats before they metastasize.

That’s the future of warfare. But it also means the world is becoming more unstable—not less.

Final Thought

Here’s the reality nobody wants to admit:

The bad guys never stopped organizing.

ISIS adapted.
Iran stalled.
China maneuvered.
Russia escalated.
Terror groups spread into Africa.
And the world kept pretending everything was returning to normal.

It isn’t. The question isn’t whether America should engage with threats overseas. The question is whether we deal with them there… or wait until they show up here. Because history has already answered that question once. And it cost us thousands of lives.

Stay alert. Stay informed. And as always—keep your head on a swivel.

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