Chuck Holton
Politics • Culture • News
How This War Ends—and How Israel Could Still Lose the Peace
4 hours ago
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Today’s a heavy one. It’s the anniversary of October 7, 2023—the biggest massacre of Jews since the Holocaust—and Israel is still absorbing rockets from Gaza and drones out of Yemen even today. The war isn’t over. But the question we have to ask is: how does it end—and how does Israel avoid losing the peace even if it wins the war?

Even people on the left are starting to admit the obvious: Israel is held to a different standard. Scott Galloway—no conservative firebrand—recently pointed out that when America was attacked (Pearl Harbor, 9/11) we prosecuted war hard and nobody called it “genocide.” Israel fights more humanely than most modern campaigns—yet is told it can defend itself only up to a truce, never to victory. That’s a double standard, and it costs lives.

 

Two Years That Rewired the Region

I flew into Israel right after the attack. The scenes at Kibbutz Be’eri and elsewhere were beyond anything I’ve covered—murder and desecration. Israel’s response was righteous self-defense against an enemy that embeds in civilian neighborhoods and counts on Western outrage to do the rest.

Two realities have taken root inside Israel:

  1. Never again, for real this time. There will be a buffer between terrorists and Israeli families—permanently. Security is getting layered, redundant, and domestic; foreign goodwill is nice, but it won’t be Plan A.

  2. Humility after hubris. Israel missed it. Warnings were there; they bet the north would ignite first; they were wrong. That lesson is now baked in.

Regionally, Iran’s proxies have been smashed hard—Hamas degraded, Hezbollah leaders targeted, Iraqi militias cowed, Houthis still lobbing but bloodied. It’s reshuffled politics from Lebanon to Syria, where Iranian scaffolding has wobbled and local power centers are recalculating. Meanwhile U.S. forces have quietly absorbed hits while manning missile defenses that keep Israel breathing.

Bottom line: Israel has won a lot of battles. But on the global stage—diplomatically, informationally—Israel is bleeding support. That’s how you win the war and lose the peace.

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🔴 Live in 1 Hour — Two Years Since the October 7 Attack

Two years ago today — October 7, 2023 — Hamas launched one of the deadliest attacks on Jews since the Holocaust, murdering over 1,200 Israelis, kidnapping hundreds, and sparking a war that still burns.

In this special live report, I’ll take you back to that day — the brutality, the chaos, and the courage — and show how Israel fought back while much of the world turned its outrage against the victims.

We’ll walk through the two-year timeline of this ongoing war: from the massacre and hostage crisis, to the battle in Gaza, Hezbollah’s northern front, Red Sea attacks, and the global hypocrisy that blamed Israel for surviving.

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Are We Really “Going to War” with Venezuela? What the Headlines Get Wrong

 A British tabloid blared that the U.S. is gearing up to seize ports and airfields in Venezuela. That makes for spicy clicks—but it doesn’t match the legal language, the logistics, or the real-world indicators. I’ve trained and served on teams that actually seize airfields. If that were in the works, we’d see unmistakable prep. We’re not seeing it. The bigger near-term risk? Continued strikes on drug-running assets—and a much higher likelihood of U.S.-Israeli coordination against Iran.

 

 

Trump’s Ultimatum to Hamas: Same Script, New Deadline

On Truth Social, President Trump warned Hamas to accept a peace deal by Sunday 6:00 p.m. (Washington, DC) or “all hell… will break out.” I’d love a deal, but I’m skeptical. The decision-makers in Hamas profit from perpetual war. We’ve heard “hell will break loose” before—with little U.S. follow-through beyond letting Israel keep doing what it’s been doing.

 

Greta’s “Selfie Flotilla” Wasn’t Humanitarian (Because There Was No Aid)

The IDF intercepted the flotilla that tried to enter Gazan waters handed out sandwiches, detained folks—including Greta Thunberg—and prepared deportations. The boats reportedly carried party drugs but no relief supplies. If you’ve seen real abductions from October 7th, you know the difference. This was performance activism that burned ~$500,000—money that could have fed tens of thousands for a month—on a PR stunt.

Activism that helps cameras instead of people is vanity, not virtue.

 

“Going to War” with Venezuela? Let’s Bayonet the Balloon

A tabloid headline shouted: “US military preparing to seize ports and airfields in Venezuela.” Here’s the sober cut:

  • Legal framing ≠ full war. The administration’s memo to Congress described a “non-international armed conflict” with cartels. That’s a legal term of art, not a declaration of war.

  • Seizing ports/airfields is loud. I served in the 75th Ranger Regiment (’87–’91) and jumped onto airfields. If we were truly prepping that, you’d see pre-positioned logistics, NOTAMs/NAVWARNs, air tasking changes, and a big footprint that’s hard to hide. We don’t see it.

  • Panama 1989 vs. Venezuela today. In Operation Just Cause, we invaded a country of ~2.5M with tens of thousands of troops, serious air and armor, and weeks of dedicated training. Venezuela is ~40M. Taking and holding ground there would be exponentially more complex.

What Venezuela does have

Open-source clips show Soviet-era anti-ship missiles (likely P-15 Termit/“Styx” class) moving around. They’re old, loud on radar, and easier to jam/decoy than modern systems—but in mass they can task-saturate defenses. U.S. carrier groups layer Aegis/SM-2/ESSM/CIWS and countermeasures for precisely this threat. It’s manageable—but not trivial.

The realistic playbook

  • High: More maritime interdictions of cartel “fishing boats” and smugglers off Venezuela.

  • Medium: Limited strikes on drug labs/trans-shipment sites ashore if intelligence is solid.

  • Low: A ground invasion to seize ports/airfields. That would also nuke any dreams of a Nobel and hand Moscow/Tehran a propaganda win.

 

Why This Matters Beyond Caracas

Russia, Iran, and China would love to see America bogged down in South America—anything to dilute our attention from Ukraine and the Middle East. My read: A U.S.-Israeli strike package against Iran is more likely in the near term than Marines storming Venezuelan ports. Also notable: a sizable cluster of aerial refueling assets has been spotted in the Mediterranean—fuel follows intent.

 

Mailbag Highlights (from the live Q&A)

  • “Is Venezuela as bad as Panama in ’89?” In several ways, worse—economically and institutionally.

  • “Would Brazil get involved?” Brazil’s posture is about blocking Venezuelan access to Guyana, not joining a U.S.-Venezuela fight.

  • “Could spec ops take out Maduro?” Possible in theory; risky in practice. He’s ring-fenced by Cuban and Wagner security. Risk of Russian casualties = geopolitical blowback.

  • “Cyberattacks if Europe ‘kicks off’?” Already happening daily; they’d intensify.

  • “Government shutdown hurting troops?” Politicians won’t tolerate troops missing pay; “essential services” keep running. The bigger question is what bloated government shouldn’t be doing in the first place.

 

The Rangers taught us to become extremely good at one thing: violence on command—under control. Seizing airfields meant learning everything from hot-wiring bulldozers to clearing runways to keeping a tight grip on self-discipline off-duty. That discipline still frames how I assess headlines today: verify the logistics, not the rhetoric.

 

What to Watch Next

  • Maritime interdictions off Venezuela (numbers, frequency, and targets)

  • Movement and basing of U.S. tankers/long-range strike aircraft

  • Israeli readiness indicators; U.S.-Israel joint signaling toward Iran

  • Venezuelan regime messaging and missile dispersal along the coast

If you missed the LIVE, you can watch it HERE

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