Chuck Holton
Politics • Culture • News
Under Fire in Odessa: What I Saw My First Night Back in Ukraine
November 16, 2025

I’m writing this from a hotel room balcony in Odessa, Ukraine, looking out over the Black Sea. A few hours after we landed, the sun went down—and the sky lit up.

Tracer fire. Heavy machine guns. The crack of air-defense cannons. Every few seconds another burst stitched across the dark as Ukrainian gunners tried to knock Russian drones out of the sky.

If you’ve never seen air defense at work, it’s eerie. You’re standing there in the dark, listening for the drone engine you can’t quite hear yet, watching glowing rounds arc up toward an invisible target… and somewhere out there, a warhead is either going to get stopped—or come down on somebody’s apartment.

Welcome to “normal life” in southern Ukraine, four years into this war.

 

Life Under the Drones

Russia has been sending hundreds of drones and missiles into Ukraine—sometimes five, six, seven, eight hundred in a night. About every few days there’s another big wave. Most of the time, the targets are civilian neighborhoods—apartment blocks, playgrounds, power plants, shopping centers. I’ll be taking you to some of those impact sites while I’m here, and you can judge for yourself whether those were “military targets.”

Earlier today we walked along the waterfront. It looked, at first glance, almost normal- moms pushing strollers along the promenade, guys running with their dogs, people drinking coffee in seaside cafés, a couple of lunatics swimming in the Black Sea in 50-degree weather

And then you notice the new concrete bomb shelters popping up in the parks.

These look a lot like what you see in Israel—thick concrete tubes with a steel door and a little S-shaped entrance so shrapnel can’t fly straight in. You can squeeze 15–20 people into one. They’re not meant to survive a direct hit, but if a drone or missile goes off nearby, they’ll keep you alive.

That’s what “normal” means in Odessa now: push the baby in a stroller, grab a coffee, make sure you know where the nearest shelter is.

While Russia is busy terrorizing civilians, Ukraine is doing something very different: it’s going after Russia’s wallet. Instead of pouring their limited missiles into random apartment buildings, Ukrainians are focusing their own drones and homegrown missiles—like the Neptune and the newer Flamingo—on oil infrastructure and air defense systems deep inside Russia.

One of the biggest recent examples: the strike on Novorossiysk, a major Russian oil port on the Black Sea.

Moscow called that port “Fortress Russia.” It was supposed to be impregnable—ringed with their most advanced S-400 air defense systems, layered radar, the works. Then Ukrainian drones and missiles came in low over the water, slipped through that air-defense bubble, and:

  • Shut down a port that moved over 2 million barrels of crude a day

  • Destroyed or damaged a big chunk of Russia’s high-end air defenses

  • Sent one large tanker listing badly after being hit by an unmanned surface vessel

By some estimates, that one port alone accounted for around 20% of Russia’s energy exports. You take that off the market, you’re not just hitting Putin’s war machine—you’re jacking with the global oil flow.

Ukraine has hit multiple Black Sea terminals and depots in recent weeks. People here have started calling these strikes “Ukrainian sanctions.” When Western leaders talk big about sanctions but don’t enforce them, Ukrainians say, “Fine. We’ll sanction Russia ourselves—by blowing up the infrastructure that funds the war.”

Russia still has a lot of people and a lot of guns. But it does not have infinite money. Roughly 40% of the Russian government’s revenue comes from energy exports. Every time Ukraine takes out a port, refinery, or depot, that number gets harder for the Kremlin to sustain.

That’s called strategy. And frankly, it’s a lot more moral than what Russia is doing to Ukrainian civilians.

 

“Why Should Americans Care?”

I know some of you are asking the same thing I see in the comments all the time:

“Why should we give Ukraine another penny?”
“What does it matter to anyone here if Russia owns Ukraine?”
“We’ve got 42 million Americans on welfare. Take care of our own first.”

So let’s talk about it.

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Car Explosion Outside U.S. Embassy in Yerevan Sparks Fire, Investigation Underway

YEREVAN, Armenia — February 19, 2026
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Live Call TOMORROW
Our live call is this Saturday, February 21st at 12:00 PM Eastern.

Local’s members,

Our live call is this Saturday, February 21st at 12:00 PM Eastern.

Chuck just returned from Colombia and Syria and will be taking your questions—covering everything from ministry work on the ground in Colombia to the evolving geopolitical situation overseas. This is your chance to go deeper and hear directly from him.

He’ll also be sharing more about the upcoming Frontier Forge Institute summer camp, including its mission to train young men (ages 13–17) in Christian leadership, discipline, and responsibility. 

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Mercy on the Ground, War on the Horizon

The conflict between the United States and Iran is doing that strange dance right now. On one hand, you’ve got “negotiations” in Geneva. On the other hand… you’ve got aircraft carriers moving.

Axios reported this morning that we may be closer to striking Iran than most people realize. Not months. Not “someday.” Possibly days. And if you watch the hardware, it tells a clearer story than the press releases.

In just the last 48 hours, reports indicate the U.S. has surged:

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That carrier does not have to sail into the Strait of Hormuz to be useful.

From the eastern Mediterranean—especially with tanker support—U.S. aircraft can strike targets inside Iran. Which means this could kick off before the Ford ever gets to the Gulf.

These “Talks” Aren’t Really Talks

The negotiations happening in Geneva aren’t face-to-face. There’s no American official sitting across a table from the Ayatollah. It’s shuttle diplomacy.

Omani intermediaries walk between rooms—one room with American envoys, another with Iranian representatives—carrying messages back and forth.

The U.S. says:
“You must give up highly enriched uranium and abandon your nuclear ambitions.”

Iran says:
“We’re willing to talk.”

And then quietly:
“Just not about that.”

That’s not negotiation.

And while the delay continues, the Ayatollah is publicly threatening to sink American carriers, calling them “big targets.”

Can Iran Sink a Carrier?

Let’s be serious for a moment. Yes, Iran has hypersonic missiles. Yes, they have thousands of short-range missiles designed to threaten neighbors like Saudi Arabia. Yes, they have speedboats with guns and some small submarines.

But here’s the problem for them:

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Iran’s Threat Videos, America’s Buildup, and the Question Nobody Wants to Answer

Right now, the nuclear talks in Geneva are stalling with Iran. Meanwhile, the United States is building combat power in the region at a level we haven’t seen since the Iraq invasion—two aircraft carriers, dozens of warships, hundreds of combat aircraft, and tens of thousands of troops either in theater or moving that direction.

 

The U.S. buildup is not subtle—and Iran knows it

From what I’m tracking, the U.S. is moving into the region with:

  • Two carrier strike groups (one already in theater and another inbound)

  • 300–400 combat jets in the region when you count land-based aircraft

  • Patriot and THAAD batteries shifting into place

  • Aegis destroyers tuned for ballistic missile defense

  • A steady stream of support aircraft—tankers, ISR platforms, and the stuff you don’t talk about on a public livestream

And here’s the point: the United States isn’t putting all that out there to “negotiate harder.” That’s the kind of posture you take when you want your opponent to understand the consequences before you act.

Iran’s information war just leveled up (and yes, the video was impressive)

Iran has been pumping out threat videos for weeks—straight of Hormuz posturing, military drills, the whole production.

But they dropped one recently that honestly looks like a Super Bowl ad for ballistic missiles.

And I’ll say this plainly: it was well-made. Whoever is building their media operation understands modern influence warfare. The goal isn’t just to scare Israel—it’s to scare Americans, spook markets, pressure allies, and make decision-makers hesitate.

The missile they’re showcasing is the Khoramshahr-4 (they’re pitching it as unstoppable, “uninterceptable,” and essentially a war-ending weapon).

So let’s talk about what it can do—and what it can’t.

Khoramshahr-4: a serious threat, but not a war-winner

From the way this missile is being described, it’s a liquid-fueled, medium-range system with roughly 2,000 km range—meaning Israel is in reach, U.S. bases in the region are in reach, and potentially some assets farther out are threatened depending on basing and launch options.

The real concern isn’t just speed. The concern is maneuverability on re-entry—a re-entry vehicle that can adjust course makes interception harder.

But here’s the part that matters strategically:

  • A weapon can be terrifying and still not be decisive.

  • A missile can get through sometimes and still not win the war.

Even if Iran had a significant number of these—and even if a percentage penetrated defenses—that’s not enough to defeat the combined combat power the U.S. and Israel can bring to bear.

Iran can cause damage. Iran can kill people. Iran can make the cost real.

But Iran cannot win a conventional war against the U.S. and Israel.

That’s why they’re leaning so heavily into the psychological side: if you can’t win the fight, you try to prevent the fight.

The Strait of Hormuz threat has a problem: China

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