Chuck Holton
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Iran/Israel Critical Threat Brief for January 13, 2025
January 13, 2025

1. Iran's Air Defense Exercises

Iran conducted another air defense drill on January 12, focusing on areas near its nuclear facilities in Arak and Fordow. This marks the second such exercise in recent days, likely reflecting Tehran's fears of potential airstrikes on its nuclear program. While the drills featured various air defense systems, analysts note that these systems are inferior to U.S. and Israeli capabilities.

Also, Iranian authorities claimed to have added more than 1000 new long-range drones with "stealth capabilities" to their arsenal in recent weeks.

2. Tensions in Judea and Samaria

The Palestinian Authority (PA) has made a notable shift by publicly condemning Hamas, vowing to prevent any Hamas-led efforts to incite conflict in Judea and Samaria. Historically, while the PA and Hamas have been political rivals, the PA often avoided directly criticizing Hamas, particularly during periods of heightened conflict with Israel.

This change in tone is likely tied to the IDF’s recent operations in Gaza, which have decimated Hamas’ military and political infrastructure. The PA sees an opportunity to distance itself from Hamas, portraying the group as a proxy for Iran and blaming it for the destruction in Gaza. By emphasizing Hamas’ failures and its ties to Tehran, the PA aims to bolster its legitimacy as a more stable and responsible governing authority, seeking to regain favor with the international community and Arab states.

This strategic pivot reflects the shifting power dynamics in the region and the PA’s efforts to reassert control and authority in Palestinian territories.

3. Regional Military Activities

  • Syria: Turkey escalated attacks on U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), including drone strikes and airstrikes along key frontlines.
  • Gaza Strip: The IDF has cleared 40% of militia infrastructure in Beit Hanoun as part of ongoing ground operations to thwart indirect fire attacks on southern Israel.
  • Lebanon: Along the border, IDF forces conducted strikes and issued evacuation orders for several villages in southern Lebanon.

4. Broader Regional Dynamics

The Houthis claimed a drone and missile attack on the USS Harry S. Truman in the Red Sea, marking their second such claim in less than a week. Meanwhile, the Jordanian military clashed with smugglers along the Syria-Jordan border, underscoring ongoing security challenges.

These developments underscore the continued volatility across multiple fronts in the Middle East. For more details and interactive maps, check out the full report from the Critical Threats Project and the Institute for the Study of War.

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“Going to War” with Venezuela? Let’s Bayonet the Balloon

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  • Legal framing ≠ full war. The administration’s memo to Congress described a “non-international armed conflict” with cartels. That’s a legal term of art, not a declaration of war.

  • Seizing ports/airfields is loud. I served in the 75th Ranger Regiment (’87–’91) and jumped onto airfields. If we were truly prepping that, you’d see pre-positioned logistics, NOTAMs/NAVWARNs, air tasking changes, and a big footprint that’s hard to hide. We don’t see it.

  • Panama 1989 vs. Venezuela today. In Operation Just Cause, we invaded a country of ~2.5M with tens of thousands of troops, serious air and armor, and weeks of dedicated training. Venezuela is ~40M. Taking and holding ground there would be exponentially more complex.

What Venezuela does have

Open-source clips show Soviet-era anti-ship missiles (likely P-15 Termit/“Styx” class) moving around. They’re old, loud on radar, and easier to jam/decoy than modern systems—but in mass they can task-saturate defenses. U.S. carrier groups layer Aegis/SM-2/ESSM/CIWS and countermeasures for precisely this threat. It’s manageable—but not trivial.

The realistic playbook

  • High: More maritime interdictions of cartel “fishing boats” and smugglers off Venezuela.

  • Medium: Limited strikes on drug labs/trans-shipment sites ashore if intelligence is solid.

  • Low: A ground invasion to seize ports/airfields. That would also nuke any dreams of a Nobel and hand Moscow/Tehran a propaganda win.

 

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  • “Is Venezuela as bad as Panama in ’89?” In several ways, worse—economically and institutionally.

  • “Would Brazil get involved?” Brazil’s posture is about blocking Venezuelan access to Guyana, not joining a U.S.-Venezuela fight.

  • “Could spec ops take out Maduro?” Possible in theory; risky in practice. He’s ring-fenced by Cuban and Wagner security. Risk of Russian casualties = geopolitical blowback.

  • “Cyberattacks if Europe ‘kicks off’?” Already happening daily; they’d intensify.

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The Rangers taught us to become extremely good at one thing: violence on command—under control. Seizing airfields meant learning everything from hot-wiring bulldozers to clearing runways to keeping a tight grip on self-discipline off-duty. That discipline still frames how I assess headlines today: verify the logistics, not the rhetoric.

 

What to Watch Next

  • Maritime interdictions off Venezuela (numbers, frequency, and targets)

  • Movement and basing of U.S. tankers/long-range strike aircraft

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  • Venezuelan regime messaging and missile dispersal along the coast

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